The Hurricane Warning Global Warming Analysis
will tackle the extremely complex and heated issue
of Global Warming. This analysis will be as unbiased
as possible in order to provide the most accurate
information possible. This analysis will start with the
basics and then build torwards the actual scenarios
and issues surrounding them. Use the Hurricane
Warning Discussion to ask questions about this
complex issue. I will answer them ASAP.
This study was compiled with the help of the EPA, Wikipedia, NCDC, NOAA, USGS, BBC, The Weather Makers (by Tim Flannery).
The Issue Of Global Warming
Global Warming has been an issue of extreme controversy over the past
decade or so. Many groups have organized to express thier opinions on
Global Warming while skewing scientific data. This makes the simple
question of what is Global Warming a hard one to answer. Global warming
as it is understood today is the theory that Greenhouse gases such as
Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide increase the mean temperature
of the world through the greenhouse effect which then causes climate change.
The Greenhouse Effect
The Greenhouse effect is a very simple theory when looked at broadly. It
is the theory that greenhouse gases such as Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and
Nitrous Oxide, as well as other trace gases, increase global temperature by
trapping the heat of the sun under a layer of the gases as represented by
the below diagram courtesy of the EPA.
There are a few details to the Greenhouse theory however. The process
represented by the Greenhouse theory starts when the sun emits many
forms of radiation, The radiation then travels from the Sun to Earth over
the span of a few minutes. On impact with the atmosphere some is
reflected. When this radiation impacts the Earth's surface a large portion
is reflected and some is absorbed by the Earth. The portion that is
reflected would pass easily through into space if it wasnt for the
greenhouse gases. These gases block some of the radiation from returning
to space and send it back to Earth causing more radiation to be absorbed
by Earth. This causes the warming of the Earth's surface and lower
atmsophere. This is thus the greenhouse theory.
The Greenhouse Gases
There are 3 primary Greenhouse Gases, Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and
Nitrous Oxide. Carbon Dioxide is the most widely known Greenhouse
Gas due to its much larger amount in comparison to the other gases.
There is about 365 PPM(parts per million) of Carbon Dioxide in the
atmosphere. This is compared to 1745 PPB(parts per billion) of Methane
and 314 PPB of Nitrous Oxide. Not all Greenhouse Gases have the same
warming potential though. The warming potential of a greenhouse gas
is rated on the GWP(global warming potential) scale. GWP is measured
in comparison to Carbon Dioxide's effect on the atmosphere as time goes
out. Thus, Carbon Dioxides GWP is 1 for all times. The higher the GWP,
the higher the effects. Methane breaks down relatively fast but, is
extremely potent when it comes to greenhouse gases. Its GWP over
20 years is 62, 23 over 100 years, and 7 over 500 years. Nitrous Oxides is
also very potent for its short 120 year life and has a GWP of 296 over 120
years. There are a few other extremely potent greenhouse gases but,
they are in trace amounts of PPT(parts per trillion). They are CFC-12,
HCFC-22, tetrafluromethane, and sulfur hexrafluouride.
Current Greenhouse Gas Trends
There has been an unmistakable rise in Greenhouse Gases since the
industrial revolution. This leads many people to infer that man has caused
the current rise in Greenhouse Gases. In fairness to science, I will not
make that assumption. Rather, lets look at the facts. The current rise
in greenhouse gases since 1750 is as follows, Carbon Dioxide levels
have rose 87 PPM or about 31%. Methane has rose about 1045 PPB or
about 150%. Nitrous Oxide has rose 44 PPB or about 16%. All of rises
are extremely significant to say the least. This is represented by the
below graphs courtesy of NOAA.
Thus, a rise in Greenhouse Gases is occuring. By what cant be said. I will discuss
possible causes later on. Now to look into the current trends in climate during this
time of Greenhouse Gas Rise.
Current Climate Trends
Detecting a trend in the Earth's climate can be easy but, understanding the
trend is a whole other issue. Our current data set is very short in terms of
the Earth's climate and thus, we have very little understanding of long
term climate trends and the little oscillations that occur during the trends.
This in itself casts reasonable doubt upon the global warming theory but,
there is evidence that indicates a change in climate due to greenhouse gas.
The main evidence is the mean global temperature change graph over the
past few centuries. This one is courtesy of the EPA.
As can be seen in this graph, there has been a rise in mean global temperature
over the Industrial Revolution. This correlates strongly with increase in the
primary greenhouse gases. Remember there is no way to prove that the
cause of Global Warming is the greenhouse gases. There is just not enough
emperical evidence. There is however a cause for concern, this period of
climate change has caused massive changes in the physical and biological
world as I will get to next. If man is indeed contributing to Global Warming,
something has to change, the Earth or Man's habits.
Changes In The Physical Earth
This recent warming of the Earth, man made or not, has caused significant
shifts in the physical Earth. The physical Earth in this section refers to anything
non-biologicical and above the first 100 feet or so of dirt.
Glacial Retreat
One of the more significant impacts of the recent warming trend has been
glacial retreat. Many glaciers around the world have melted significantly but,
others have gained significantly. The best way to measure the global trend
is on a Glacier Mass Balance Scale. This scale basically measures the
difference between accumulation on the glacier and abation(melting and
sublimation). If the glacier mass balance scale is negative for a sustained
time the glacier will recede, if it is positive for a sustained time the glacier
will advance. When applied to a global scale like I am about to show it is
the same but, it is a trend. It doesnt mean all glaciers are retreating or
advancing depending on the graph, just that the majority are retreating
or advancing. The below graph is courtesy of Wikipedia.
As can be seen, the cumulative glacier mass balance has been declining
fairly fast over the past 40 years. This indicates that a majority of the
worlds glaciers are retreating. This is in correlation with the recent warming
trend and it is fair to say the recent warming trend has caused this due to
the fact that the warmer it is, the more melting occurs and the more negative
the scale would be. This is just one of the many changes in the physical
Earth. Below is a glacial retreat animation courtesy of the USGS.
Sea Ice Retreat
One of the most dramatic effects of the recent warming trend has been the
retreat of sea ice in the Arctic. The retreat of sea ice in the Arctic is about
−2.5% ± 0.9% per decade or about 3%. Interestingly enough, the Antarctic
sea ice has been increasing by about 0.8% a decade. The Antarctic however
has more fluctuations in sea ice trend from decade to decade rather than
the very sustained decrease in Arctic sea ice. It is very easy to see the
decrease on sea ice maps and sea ice graphs as provided below from NOAA.
As can be seen on the map, sea ice has decreased dramatically and will continue
to decrease dramatically in the Arctic. This will further warm the world as less
sunlight is reflected from the ice. There may be a summer with no sea ice on the
Arctic sea by 2100. This may cause heavy erosion in the Arctic and North Atlantic
Oceans as space for waves to build becomes dramatically larger. This is just
another physical effect of the current warming trend.
Permafrost Melt
The permafrost melt is an often overlooked aspect of the recent warming trend.
Permafrost is basically dirt that has been frozen for 2 years or more. Permafrost
typically extends from 0.6-4 meters into the ground. It extends up to 1493 meters
into the ground at one point in Siberia though! Permafrost takes a very long time
of constant freezing to become deep. It takes 35,000 years for 461 meters of
permafrost to form. Obviously, it would take a very long time to replace melted
permafrost. As for the current permafrost situation, the permafrost is rapidly
melting. 1998 and 2001 saw record permafrost melt in Alaska and Siberia. Since
1899, the continuous permafrost line has moved 100 km poleward in the Yukon.
Similar losses of permafrost are occuring in other arctic regions. There are 2
very bad effects from a melting of permafrost. One is permafrost stabalizes
most of the Arctic land. When it melts, the Arctic land it supported becomes very
prone to erosion. Alot of this has already been seen. An image of permafrost
erosion and subsequent damage is below courtesy of NOAA.
The other and much more serious effect of permafrost melt is stored gas release.
Permafrost stores highly potent greenhouse gases such as methane. Permafrost
also contains ice structures called clathrates that very effectively store gas. When
the permafrost melts all this gas is released and contributes more to the
greenhouse effect which in theory would cause more warming. A good example of
permafrost melt is occuring at this moment in Siberia. In siberia frozen peat bogs
which are essentially permafrost are warming rapidly and melting. They contain
billions of tonnes of methane. Methane is an extremely potent greenhouse gas as
mentioned before. This stored gas could potentially alter the current climate trends
when released. There is also more stored gas in other Arctic regions that could
potentially be released.
Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise is on the minds of most people when it comes to global warming.
It may be suprising but, this may very well be the least of our worries. Sea
level rise is nothing new. It has been going on for the past 18,000 years and
in fact, for the past 3,000 years the rise has been small to none. Since the last
glacial maximum 18,000 years ago sea levels have risen about 120 meters.
Currently, the rises are very slow. Sea levels are rising at 3 mm a year, this
is influenced by melting glaciers and ice caps as mentioned before. The climate
does keep the rise low though. The fact that the Earth is warmer from recent
warming trends has caused more precipitation over the Antarctic highlands, from
which no water escapes. This keeps the rise slow as said before. Truth is, if a city
were to be threatened by the rise it would be easy to escape due to the fact its
only 3 mm a year. Thus, dont worry about this physical change from the recent
warming but, it is still an indicator of change. The below chart is courtesy of
NOAA. It represents glacier and ice pack contributions to sea levels.
Precipitation Cycle Changes
Changes in the precipitation cycle have already become evident during this
recent warming trend. It is theorized that precipitation cycles will continue to
shift due to the warming, bringing droughts to wet areas and bringing floods
to dry areas. There is no evidence to prove any of this theory though due to
the lack of historical evidence and understanding of the precipitation cycles.
Thus, we dont have enough emperical evidence once again which is the case
with alot of climate situations.
Changes In The Biological Earth
Throughout history, we have learned from the biological forces on our planet
about climate and meteorology. The biological forces on our planet are very
fragile and thus, give a good indicator if something anomalous is occurring.
This has been extremely evident during the recent warming trend. The changes
in the biological world are numerous and very startling. The biological world in this
section refers to all life on this Earth except below 100 feet or more of dirt.
Coral Bleaching
One of the best indicators of climate change in the tropics is Coral. Coral sadly
only lives in a very small span of water temperatures. Recent warming of the
Earth has led to periods of time in areas of the tropics of temperatures above
the threshold required for coral life. This results in the symbiotic zooxanthellae
(single celled algae) to seperate from the coral due to stress. If conditions
improve quickly, the coral may be able to recover the algae but, most of the
time that isnt the case and the coral dies. This process is called coral bleaching
and results in great spans of white, dead coral. This process is already ocurring
throughout the world at higher rates than ever. The Great Barrier Reef suffered
2 massive coral bleaching spells in 1998 and 2002. These have resulted in some
areas of 90% coral death. There are estimates that suggest the great barrier reef
will be completely bleached by 2050. This is speculation though. The most
severe bleaching is in the Indian Ocean though. 90% of the coral has been
bleached off of the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Seychelles, Congo, and Kenya.
There is bleaching occuring basically in all areas with coral currently. Coral is
the most diverse ecosystem in the ocean and the loss of it will have major
implications for life and economics. Below is an image of Bleached Coral courtesy
of NOAA.
Biological Disaster On The Summits
During the recent warming trend warmer climate zones have expanded into
higher elevations. The biological forces associated with these zones have also
migrated upwards. The biggest problem with this is the Biological life at the top.
It has no where to run from the climate change and thus, it is doomed to die
once its zone is gone. This is a serious issue due to the fact that each mountain
has a unique ecosystem and unique species. A good example is the mountains
of New Guinea where the Alpine ecosystems hold many forms of unique life.
They are now threatened with being pushed off the top so to speak. Since
the last ice age, the Alpine environment in New Guinea has moved from 7,000
feet to 13,000 feet. This is continuing with the recent warming trend and is seen
all around the world. This could be one of the worst biological impacts from this
recent warming trend as once the species are gone, they are gone forever.
Biological Zone Shifts
Biological zone shifts have been a very clear indicator of climate change during
this recent warming trend. This is very similar to the Mountain Climate shifts but,
it is over a much broader scale and there is more room for species to move in
most cases. Biological zone shifts are nothing new, they have been occuring over
all of the past. A good example is the forests that now reside around Montreal used
to only be in Northern Florida about 14,000 years ago. Despite the fact that its a
common force, it is still the greatest threat to Biological life for many reasons. One
is that in some areas there is no where left to go such as islands. A good example
is Tazmania where Eucalypt forests are dying from hotter and drier conditions.
They have nowhere to go and thus, if warming continues, will be wiped out.
Another reason biological zone shifts are a big threat to biodiversity is
environments that have nowhere to go due to Mountains or water, this is similar
to the island situation. A good example is South Africa's succulent Karoo Flora,
it is the richest arid zone flora on Earth with more than 2500 species of plants
found only in that area. This biological zone has nowhere to migrate due to the
Cape Fold Mountains to the south and east. They are unsuitable for the plants. It
is estimated the succulent Karoo Flora will be 99% wiped out by 2050. The same
situation is occuring for species around the world that have nowhere to go.
Yet,a nother problem is the fact that humans have blocked escape routes with
construction. This dooms alot more species than in past climate changes.
Another example of Biological zone shifts is the advance of life into the tundra.
Forests are growing in areas of the north that never had forest. A good example
is recent reports of forest advance in Scandinavia. Many species are also spreading
north. In Antarctica, grass has been reported for the first time ever, it is on the
Antarctic peninsula. This is an astonishing example of Biological zone shifts. Thus,
biological zones are shifting poleward and upward but, some species are doomed
due to the fact they have run out of room.
Hurricanes And Global Warming
One of the most common misconceptions is global warming or warming of the
Earth in general causes an increase in hurricanes. Once again we do not have
anough emperical evidence to prove this but, there are alot more factors than sea
surface temperature that influence hurricane growth. A good example is shear.
Shear is the difference in winds at different heights. It doesnt matter how hot the
water is if shear is high, no hurricane will form. This is the case in the tropics most
of the time. Thus, an increase in hurricanes cannot be correlated to global
warming. As for global warming and hurricane intensity, a correlation cannot be
proven. Once again, there are other factors that control hurricane intensity than the
sea surface temperatures such as shear and land.
Causes Of Greenhouse Gas Rise
There are a few causes of greenhouse gas rise. One is natural causes such as
Bacteria and animals. They release alot of greenhouse gases constantly such as
methane, nitrogen, and carbon dioxide. Every time you exhale you add C02 to
the air. Another is geological forces such as Volcanoes. They can release massive
amounts of greenhouse gases, mostly C02. There are also a few other complex
causes. As for man made causes also known as athropogenic causes, there are a
few. The biggest ones are Agriculture, transportation, and industry. These have
added alot of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Combined they have raised
global C02 87 PPM. The biggest culprit of this is fossil fuels. They are in essence
pure stored carbon so, when you burn them you release alot of Carbon Dioxide.
Other gases are released also through the before mentioned activities. Thus,
Greenhouse Gas Rise appears to be caused by man but, it cant be proven. Below
is a factory like many others. It is constantly releasing greenhouse gas.
Conclusion After Analysis
After this analysis I conclude a few things. There has been a rise in greenhouse
gases, it cant be proven man has caused it but, evidence suggests man has
caused the rise due to strong correlations between our activities and the increase
in greenhouse gases. There is a rise in global temperature recenty, what has
caused it can not be proven despite correlation between greenhouse gas rise
and the temperature rise. There are many physical and Biological changes that
are caused by the recent warming trend that have and will continue to have
a major impact on society and life on Earth. We must do more research to
understand the exact cause of the warming in order to hopefully prevent much
more change. Once again, if we are indeed the cause of global warming
something must change, the Earth or Man's habits.
Please heed all warnings and advisories posted by the National Weather Service and the NHC. This site is for informational purposes only and should not be used to make any decisions.
