Archived Hurricane Warning Discussions

25 September 2009 2200 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical depression 8 has developed in the Atlantic, after nearly 2 weeks of no tropical cyclones. TD 8 is in the far eastern Atlantic near 15 N and 30 W, and won't be doing much. Environmental conditions are too hostile for significant development, and the depression is expected to turn north when it encounters a weakness in the subtropical ridge in a couple of days, thus making it no threat to land. The rest of the Atlantic is quiet.

19 September 2009 1900 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The Atlantic is essentially quiet, which has been the case since the demise of Fred over a week ago. It's not typical for the Atlantic to be this quiet during the peak of hurricane season, but it sure is welcome! There are 2 disturbances of note out there. The first is the remnants of Fred at about 30 N and 70 W. A circulation is apparent, and there is some convection, but it appears a frontal zone is about to absorb Fred. Thus, I don't expect the remnants of Fred to develop. The other disturbance is at roughly 15 N and 40 W. Environmental conditions don't look all that favorable for development of this system, with high shear apparent, but it already has alot of vorticity so it bears some watching. The GFS does not develop it. Meanwhile, up here in Wisconsin (my new home for a month now), the colors are beginning to change and the days are getting shorter. Parts of the northeastern U.S. are going to experience their first freeze tonight, with even mid 20s possible in some spots. These are the first signs that the end of hurricane season is approaching, since cold air building up over Canada and the northern U.S. will soon create hostile upper-level conditions across the tropics. However, October has been known to be quite an active month, so we can't let our guard down yet.

15 September 2009 0130 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Though there have been some tropical disturbances, the North Atlantic has been generally quiet, with the exception of Fred. Fred became a major hurricane on September 9th, but was far away from any land and has already weakened into a remnant low from high shear. The remnants of Fred are currently crossing 40 W at about 20 N, but upper level winds are far too hostile for development. Despite the quietness, we are essentially at the peak of hurricane season. Hopefully the quiet streak continues, but I wouldn't be surprised if we have something to watch before the end of the month.

8 September 2009 1400 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical storm Fred has developed in the far eastern Atlantic. Conditions appear favorable for Fred to develop into a minimal hurricane, but it's going to be heading north into a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge, and therefore won't be affecting land. The rest of the Atlantic is quiet.

6 September 2009 0530 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The Atlantic is essentially quiet this afternoon. The tropical wave that appeared close to development yesterday encountered a large amount of dry air and is now just a shallow cloud vortex, and it's also clearly not going to affect land. There is another wave moving off Africa now that has the potential for development, but it is also going out to sea. Hopefully the quiet pattern continues!

5 September 2009 0130 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical storm Erika has degenerated into an open wave due to high shear, and it doesn't look like it's going to be re-developing. There is another area of concern in the Atlantic though, a tropical wave which moved off Africa a few days ago. This wave appears quite healthy, and the GFS develops it. The GFS also takes it out to sea after developing it due to a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge, though it is a bit too early to say this will happen. Overall, there isn't much to be worried about right now for those that live along the Atlantic coastline.

3 September 2009 1430 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

I'm back to updating on the tropics, after spending the past week moving and settling in. Though I no longer live in the tropics (for now), I still am very interested in what's going on down there. Currently, the only tropical cyclone in the Atlantic is tropical storm Erika. Erika is currently over the Lesser Antilles and has maximum winds of 40 mph. It is being inhibited by strong shear though, so it won't be strengthening much for the next few days as it heads WNW. There's a possibility that it could dissipate, but it seems to be hanging on for now. Erika will be over Puerto Rico early Friday and in the Bahamas by late this weekend, so interests there should monitor Erika. It's more of a rain threat than anything else. As for the rest of the Atlantic, there's one disturbance moving off Africa that bears watching, but it's a long way from affecting any land. I will continue to update.

25 August 2009 1630 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Bill hit the Canadian Maritimes a few days ago and is now long gone. Damage from Bill in Canada appears to be light, and Bermuda didn't fare that bad either. So, the landmasses of the Atlantic have dodged a bullet this time. As for the tropics currently, there appears to be a tropical cyclone developing north of Puerto Rico. The models take this towards the east coast of the U.S., so interests from the Carolinas to Canada should monitor the system closely. I won't be able to update for a few days since I'm moving.

22 August 2009 0200 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Hurricane Bill is currently moving northwards in the Atlantic, with winds of 105 mph and a central pressure of 954 mb. Bill was a major hurricane for the past couple of days, but dry air has taken its toll on the storm. Pockets of dry air are apparent in the inner core of the storm, and the outer rain bands of Bill are being limited by the dry air. Even though Bill is weaker, it is still bringing bad weather to Bermuda, which is under a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch. Gusts well over hurricane force have already been observed on the island. Bill will be making its closest approach to Bermuda overnight, and the weather there will get worse before it starts to improve. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Bill closely. The storm is beginning to gain speed, and it will be directly impacting the Canadian Maritimes within 48 hours. Cooler water north of 40 N should weaken Bill considerably before it gets there though, so Bill shouldn't be more than a minimal hurricane. However, even a minimal hurricane can be dangerous, and interests in the Canadian Maritimes need to monitor Bill.

19 August 2009 1600 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical depression Ana degenerated into an open wave on Monday, and currently its remnants are moving across South Florida. The remnants of Ana are very weak, and are just bringing some scattered showers to Florida and the Bahamas. I don't suspect that the remnants of Ana will develop.

Meanwhile in the open Atlantic, Bill has become a powerful category 4 hurricane with winds of 135 mph and a minimum pressure of 950 mb. There does appear to be some shear and dry air affecting Bill, but the storm is holding its own for now. Thankfully, Bill is passing well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. Powerful swells will still impact the islands, but no gale force or higher winds are expected. Also, Bill's track has shifted west, and there appears to be a good chance that Bill won't hit Bermuda. Bermuda still needs to watch the storm closely though, since it is very large and even a large miss could bring bad weather to the island. Bill will make its closest approach to Bermuda on Saturday. After passing Bermuda, Bill should commence a weakening trend as it goes over increasingly cool waters and shear increases. Due to the shift west in Bill's track, the Canadian Maritimes need to watch the hurricane closely, as it may directly impact that region from Sunday-Monday. The intensity of Bill at that point is unknown. I will continue to update on Bill.

17 August 2009 1630 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical storm Claudette moved inland near Fort Walton Beach, Florida last night with winds of 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 1006 mb. Thankfully, it did not strengthen much before landfall due to some wind shear, so residents of the Florida panhandle were spared from a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane. The remnants of Claudette will continue to dump rain on the Florida panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia for at least the next day or two. Interests in the area should monitor statements from their local National Weather Service office for more information.

Ana was downgraded to a tropical depression yesterday, and moved across the Lesser Antilles overnight. Little more than gusty winds and rain was reported in the islands. It is currently moving across Puerto Rico, and will be impacting Hispaniola later today. It is uncertain that Ana is even a tropical cyclone, since it may not have a closed surface circulation. A ship reported west winds at 1200 UTC, indicating the possibility of a closed circulation, and this combined with a flare up of convection across Ana has caused the NHC to continue advisories on the system. Reconnaissance will investigate Ana later today to determine if it really is a tropical cyclone. Even if Ana is not a tropical cyclone right now, it is still something to watch for the Bahamas and Florida. Convection is vigorous across it right now, and the Doppler radar in San Juan, Puerto Rico is suggesting that a new center may be trying to form near NE Puerto Rico. If this new center does form, there is a possibility that Ana could miss Hispaniola, giving it 3-4 days to develop before getting to Florida. Wind shear is forecast to finally drop across Ana too. Thus, interests in the Bahamas and Florida need to keep one eye on Ana.

Bill was upgraded to a hurricane this morning, and now has winds of 90 mph. Environmental conditions are favorable for further strengthening, and Bill will be a major hurricane soon. The good news is that the size and intensity of Bill is causing it to charge north, practically through the sub-tropical ridge. It's likely now that Bill will miss the Leeward Islands, and almost every other landmass in the North Atlantic There is one place that needs to watch Bill though: Bermuda. Bill is still 5 days out from Bermuda, but now would be a good time to get some initial preparations done, since it is heading in that general direction. I will continue to update on Ana and Bill.

*****16 August 2009 1830 UTC Update*****

TD 4 has strengthened into tropical storm Claudette based on reconnaissance data, with winds of 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 1008 mb. It has moved a bit more west than I thought it would, and it might miss the bulge of land that sticks out into the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida panhandle. If it does go around this land, that will give it alot more time over water, so it might become a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane. Interests along the Florida Panhandle need to watch Claudette closely.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic, Ana has managed to maintain a circulation and minimal tropical storm force winds based on reconnaissance data. This is somewhat surprising, and interests in the Lesser Antilles should watch Ana closely as it will be moving across the islands tonight.

16 August 2009 1600 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

A tropical wave that moved across South Florida and the Keys yesterday consolidated into tropical depression 4 this morning in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is moving to the NW at 14 mph, and should make landfall within the next 12 hours somewhere between Panama City and Apalachicola. Doppler radar reveals that the system has excellent rainband structure, and infrared imagery indicates the depression has alot of deep convection. Also, environmental conditions are extremely favorable for further development. The only thing stopping this storm from becoming powerful is the fact it's gonna hit land within 12 hours. It's still likely to become a minimal tropical storm though, and tropical storm warnings are up for the entire Florida panhandle because of this possibility. Reconnaissance will investigate TD 4 later today to determine its intensity. Interests in the warning area should monitor statements from the NHC and local agencies closely.

Tropical storm Ana has been struggling over the past day. Convection has been displaced from its center due to shear, and dry air has been entraining into the storm. In fact, it's questionable if Ana even has a closed surface circulation anymore based on visible satellite imagery. Reconnaissance will investigate Ana later today to determine if it's still a tropical storm. This is good news for the Lesser Antilles, which are within a day of feeling the impacts from Ana. Additionally, as was discussed yesterday, a weaker Ana would be more likely to stay further south, and that's precisely what has occurred. Ana is now on a course which will take it towards Hispaniola and up the spine of Cuba, which will hinder Ana's development greatly later on. It remains to be seen if Ana can get more organized once it enters the Caribbean, and interests in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should watch Ana closely.

The only system in the Atlantic that really has alot of potential is tropical storm Bill. Satellite imagery reveals that Bill has excellent structure, and it's well on its way to becoming a hurricane. Winds are currently estimated to be 60 mph, with a minimum pressure of 997 mb. Bill will be crossing 40 W at a latitude of about 13 N this afternoon, which is even further south than Ana was when it crossed 40 W. However, the sub-tropical ridge is forecast to weaken over the next several days, and this combined with the intensity of Bill will allow the storm to move more northerly than Ana. It is possible that Bill will miss the Leeward Islands entirely and recurve out to sea, but it is a bit too early to make that forecast. Interests in the Leeward Islands should continue keeping one eye on Bill. I will continue to update on all systems, especially as new reconnaissance data comes in.

*****16 August 2009 0600 UTC Update*****

A system of more immediate concern than Ana and Bill is developing in the Gulf of Mexico to the west of Florida. This system has been spawned by a tropical wave which crossed Florida today, and Doppler radar as well as surface observations indicate that it is forming a closed surface circulation. Considering the extremely favorable environmental conditions, it seems likely that this area will develop into a tropical cyclone. It is currently moving northwards, and interests along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Northern Florida need to monitor this system closely. I will have a full update on Ana, Bill, and this new system tomorrow morning.

15 August 2009 1730 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

After battling hostile environmental conditions for days, tropical depression 2 has managed to become tropical storm Ana, with winds of 40 mph and a minimum pressure of 1005 mb. However, shear appears to have increased this morning, resulting in Ana's convection becoming dislocated from its circulation center. The circulation of Ana is still vigorous on visible satellite imagery, but it will not organize further until it becomes collocated with convection again. Additionally, dry air may be entraining into the system. The only environmental factor that's improving for Ana right now is sea surface temperature, since it's moving into increasingly warm waters. The future intensity of Ana is a big unknown, even over the next day. It's uncertain if shear will relax and allow Ana to intensify, or if it will continue to inhibit Ana. I suspect that conditions will become more favorable for Ana after it crosses 60 W, since shear is usually lighter in that region and sea surface temperatures are much warmer. As for the track forecast for Ana, it will be crossing 50 W sometime this afternoon. It is expected to start moving more WNW soon, though it has actually went slightly south of west this morning. The NHC has Ana near the Leeward Islands early Monday (48 hours), and this seems reasonable. If Ana stays weaker than expected due to shear, which seems like a distinct possibility, it may go a bit further south than forecast. Considering current trends, I don't expect Ana to be stronger than a moderate tropical storm when it impacts the Leeward Islands. The question then becomes what path will Ana take after moving through the Leeward Islands. If it stays weaker and moves more southerly, which is appearing more and more likely, it will move over Hispaniola and maybe Cuba, which would keep Ana as a tropical storm or less later on. However, if it gains some strength and moves more northerly, a more ominous scenario for the Bahamas and eventually Florida would probably occur. It is simply too early to tell. Interests in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor Ana closely. The National Hurricane Center has hinted that watches may go up for the Leeward Islands as soon as this afternoon.

*****15 August 2009 0500 UTC Update*****

The remnants of tropical depression 2 have passed over a buoy in the open Atlantic, and the buoy reported a minimum pressure of 1006 mb and observed a closed surface circulation. This has prompted the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the remnants of TD 2 back to a depression, with winds of 35 mph. The depression is at 14.6 N and 45.8 W as of 0430 UTC, and is forecast to be near the Leeward Islands late Monday as a tropical storm. Interests in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Greater Antilles (including Puerto Rico) should monitor TD 2 closely.

15 August 2009 0100 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical depression 2 was declassified yesterday afternoon due to a lack of organized convection, but things have changed since then. Last night the vigorous remnant circulation of TD 2 began to produce convection close to its center, and this activity has persisted. The sudden upswing in convection appears to be due to decreasing shear. Dry air is still present all around the system, but since the shear is low convection is able to organize and block out the dry air. It's a rule of thumb that you need both dry air and shear to really destroy a system, if only one of those factors is present a system can survive, like our remnant depression right now. If the remnants of TD 2 continue to produce organized convection it will probably be reclassified, perhaps as early as tonight or tomorrow morning. Now for the forecast. Currently, the well defined remnant circulation of TD 2 is crossing 45 W at a latitude of 15 N. This puts it about 15 degrees east of the Lesser Antilles. Models indicate that the subtropical ridge will keep the system on a W to WNW heading, possibly bringing it close to the northern end of the Lesser Antilles in 2-3 days. The intensity of it at that point is uncertain, but I don't think it could too strong with all the dry air around it. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on this system.

As for the disturbance that's following TD 2, it has been organizing over the day and appears to be close to depression status. Its circulation is on the eastern side of a large area of convection, and it appears shear is causing the storm to be so asymmetric. The system just crossed 30 W, and the forecast is simple. It will continue west across the Atlantic under the sub-tropical ridge, possibly threatening the Lesser Antilles in 5-6 days. I will continue to update on both disturbances in the Atlantic.

13 August 2009 1630 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical depression 2 continues to chug west across the Atlantic, and should be crossing 40 W overnight. It appeared that TD 2 got close to tropical storm strength yesterday morning, but it lost all convection by later in the afternoon due to dry air entrainment. TD 2 was actually devoid of convection until a couple of hours ago, when a small area of convection developed in the depression's NW quadrant. This convection is already being sheared away though. Dry air and shear will continue to be a problem for TD 2, and it now seems unlikely that it will become a tropical storm anytime soon. The depression may even degenerate into an open wave as it crosses the Atlantic. However, it is still something to watch since conditions will probably be more favorable once the system crosses 60 W, which will happen early next week.

As for the system that just came off of Africa, it is becoming more organized and it seems probable it will develop sometime in the next 48 hours. The circulation of the disturbance is quite large, and there is alot of convection across it. Unlike TD 2, this disturbance will be in a moist environment, and it is also over warmer water. Therefore, it may be a significant concern in the weeks ahead. I will continue to update.

11 August 2009 1530 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The hurricane season of 2009 will go down as the latest to start hurricane season since 1992, but it has finally begun. Tropical depression 2 has developed to the west of the Cape Verde islands. It is a weak system at the moment, with winds of only 30 mph and a pressure of 1006 mb, hardly enough to flip a lawn chair. However, it has the entire Atlantic in front of it and we'll be watching it for awhile. It appears that TD 2 will have the opportunity to become the first tropical storm of the season over the next couple of days, but it will have to deal with dry air and eventually shear. These factors should keep the system weak, if not cause it to degenerate into a wave at some point as it crosses the Atlantic. This may not necessarily be a good thing. If TD 2 were to be stronger than expected, it would probably move northwards into a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge around 50 W, and we wouldn't have to worry about it anymore. If it stays weak, which seems more likely, it will continue to head west under the sub-tropical ridge. The GFS agrees with the latter scenario, bringing TD 2 into the Bahamas in about a week. That is a bit too far out to speculate about though, and we have plenty of time to wait and see.

As for the rest of the Atlantic, there is a tropical wave moving off Africa that bears watching. The models have been consistent in developing it, and conditions are favorable. I will continue to update.

28 June 2009 1430 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The area of disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean that showed some potential for development a couple of days ago doesn't look so healthy anymore. An upper-level low to the west of the disturbance appears to be causing shear, which has displaced thunderstorms from the disturbance's low pressure center. The low pressure center of the disturbance is currently apparent as a swirl of clouds just north of the Yucatan. I do not expect the disturbance to develop anymore, so the quiet June will continue.

26 June 2009 2100 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche mentioned in my previous discussion hit land before it could develop, and Andres impacted coastal Mexico before quickly dissipating over the open East Pacific due to cool waters and dry air.

Now a new area of disturbed weather has arisen in the Caribbean, and this one is much more significant than previous disturbances this season. Currently an impressive convective burst has spread across the entire disturbance, and diffluence from an upper-level low over the Yucatan peninsula seems to be sustaining the convection. The disturbance is over warm water and shear is generally below 20 kt across it, so conditions are favorable for development. However, the disturbance will make landfall along the Yucatan peninsula within 48 hours, which will inhibit development for a little while. It is uncertain whether the disturbance will develop before it hits the Yucatan. After hitting the Yucatan, the GFS is suggesting that a trough will induce the disturbance to move NE towards Florida. Any Florida impact is more than a few days out though, so it is nothing to worry about yet. Interests in the northwest Caribbean should closely monitor this system, and I will continue updating.

23 June 2009 0100 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

It has been a quiet June in the North Atlantic. High shear has been dominant over most of the basin, resulting in inhospitable conditions for tropical cyclone formation. It is common for June to be quiet though, considering that the average number of June tropical storms is below 1. There is one area of disturbed weather though, which is why I'm updating tonight. A small disturbance is brewing in the Bay of Campeche. It is lacking convection right now, but there appears to be a broad spin with it. It's over warm waters and under fairly light shear, so the only issue is if it can organize before moving inland. It will really have to get its act together tonight during the diurnal maximum for genesis to be a possibility.

The East Pacific has been quiet too up until yesterday, when Andres formed. Andres is a classic developing tropical storm, with an excellent moisture connection to the equator and a sprawling spiral band system, all connected to an intense central dense overcast. I expect Andres to become a hurricane as it slowly approaches the Mexican coast, if not a strong one. The only real inhibitor to Andres' development (besides land when it gets too close) is the dry Pacific marine layer. Stratocumulus clouds associated with this layer are streaming into Andres' western semicircle, but it is hard to tell when their detrimental influence will manifest itself. Those in the path of Andres along the Mexican coastline need to take this storm very seriously, it's going to be slow moving and intense. Outer rainbands are no doubt already affecting the coastline. Consult official advisories from the National Hurricane Center for more details.

7 June 2009 2030 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The Atlantic is largely quiet, besides an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean between Central America and Jamaica. This area is very disorganized right now, with convection developing often but quickly being sheared away due to the sub-tropical jet. Wind shear is greater than 30 knots across the entire system. However, the GFS has been very consistent in slowly developing this system, and since it is over warm water, development is a possibility once shear relaxes in a few days.

3 June 2009 0000 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

It has officially been hurricane season in the North Atlantic for a couple of days now, but things remain mostly quiet across the basin, which is normal for early in the season. There is an area of low pressure north of the Azores islands that has been acquiring tropical characteristics over the past few days, and convection is continuing to generate near its center tonight. It's kind of remarkable that it's developed as much as it has since it is over 60 F waters, so there's no telling what it will do next. Fortunately, it's no threat to land even if it does develop. Aside from that, there is an area of convection south of Louisiana that bears some watching, but it will move inland within 48 hours and likely won't develop. It will be quite the rainmaker for parts of the northern Gulf coast regardless.

28 May 2009 1500 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

A broad area of low pressure that has been off of the eastern coast of the United States has consolidated overnight and has become tropical depression #1 of the North Atlantic hurricane season. The depression has a brief window of opportunity to strengthen into a weak tropical storm, but it will be moving into a region of cold sea surface temperatures and high shear within the next 1-2 days, which will annihilate it. The northern North Atlantic is called the hurricane graveyard for a reason! This depression poses almost no threat to land as it should stay south of the Canadian maritimes.

22 May 2009 2300 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico has organized considerably today. It appears that shear has relaxed over the system, since convection is no longer being ripped away from the center. The past few hours of visible images suggest that the surface circulation is actually relocating under convection in the northeastern quadrant of the low. Additionally, Florida State University's phase space diagrams indicate that the low has become shallow warm core, which means it is sub-tropical. This is a big change from when it was cold core a few days ago, but not that surprising considering it's been over warm Gulf of Mexico waters for days now. So, overall it appears that the low is on its way to becoming a classifiable sub-tropical system, but there is a caveat. It has about only one day of water left. It is near classifiable now in my opinion, but it does need to organize a bit more. The National Hurricane Center has scheduled a reconnaissance flight to investigate the low tomorrow to find out if it is indeed classifiable, but any classification would likely be just before landfall. Regardless, this low will bring gusty winds and heavy rains to the northern Gulf coast. In fact, Doppler radar indicates that outer bands are already pushing onshore there. It appears that the center of the low will make landfall in eastern Louisiana tomorrow. I will update as the situation unfolds.

20 May 2009 2200 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The area of disturbed weather across Florida continues to be the main player in the tropics, and has been quite interesting to watch the past couple of days. In the last update there were two low pressure systems in the area of disturbed weather, a developing cut-off low west of Florida and a weak surface low north of Cuba. As forecast, the low from north of Cuba was entrained into the cut-off low. The low from north of Cuba actually moved across central Florida last night, causing winds of up to 50 mph and torrential rains. It was essentially like a weak tropical storm. Now the two low pressure systems have become one, and the system is somewhat disorganized since the two vorticity maximums from the formerly discrete lows haven't fully merged yet. However, I expect the low to consolidate over the next few days as it moves slowly northwestwards across the Gulf of Mexico. Computer models are fairly consistent in having the low make landfall along the northern Gulf coast in just over 3 days. It remains to be seen how much the low can organize before then though. Water temperatures do support a slow transition of the low from completely cold core to shallow warm core (sub-tropical), and since it appears it will have time it's marginally possible that the low can become classifiable. It depends on how much wind shear and dry air affect the low. Regardless, the low will continue to cause heavy rain in Florida, and will bring nasty weather to the northern Gulf coast. I have outlined this forecast scenario in the graphic below.

19 May 2009 0100 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The broad area of disturbed weather across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas is the main issue tonight in the tropics. It is a very complex system, one of the most complex situations I've seen. It consists of two major features, a weak surface low off the northern coast of Cuba and a cut-off low west of Florida. The weak low off the northern coast of Cuba is what I was monitoring south of Cuba in the previous discussion. It lifted north as expected, and also organized. It is elongated though and also lacking convection, and wind shear is still 20-30 knots over it which is inhibiting real organization. The cut-off low west of Florida has developed today from an unusually strong cold front, which is bringing frost as far south as the southern Appalachian mountains. The cut-off low is the cause of the drenching rains that currently stretch across almost the entire Florida peninsula. This cut-off low is far from tropical at this time though, with cool/dry air pouring into the western semicircle of the low. Computer models diverge greatly on the evolution of the two low pressure systems, with the NAM and GFS unable to reach a consensus on which low pressure system will dominate. Considering that the low pressure system north of Cuba is weak and disorganized, while the cut-off low is vigorous and large, I'm going to forecast the cut-off low to become dominant over the next couple of days. This is in line with the NAM. This would mean that drenching rains will continue over Florida, as the cut-off low sits in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and slowly organizes. The low currently north of Cuba would swing around the periphery of the cut-off low in this scenario, coming across Florida before being absorbed into the low. This is a low-confidence forecast due to the wild nature of that situation, it reminds me of something out of the 'Perfect Storm.' It remains to be seen if the cut-off low can make the transition to a sub-tropical system, but I think it's possible if it has enough time over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Regardless, Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba should expect heavy rains the next few days. I have outlined the discussed scenario in the forecast graphic below.

16 May 2009 2300 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic mentioned in the previous discussion continues to be a concern tonight. It has gone further south than originally projected by computer models, and is now a broad area of thunderstorm activity south of Cuba. It is more impressive than before due to decreasing shear, and appears to be coalescing into an organized area of convection. Some shear can still be seen on visible satellite imagery, but 200-850 mb shear is below 30 kt and should decrease further as an anti-cyclone builds above the convection. The GFS is forecasting the disturbance to become a cyclone within 24-48 hours, and the NAM is about the same. The Florida State University phase space analysis still indicates that this will be sub-tropical in nature due to cool upper-levels, but it could end up being a significant cyclone anyways. It will be over the fairly warm waters of the northern Caribbean and Florida Straits/Gulf of Mexico for a few days as it heads northward along the western periphery of the Bermuda high, so a moderate to strong sub-tropical storm is possible. I have outlined this forecast scenario in the graphic below. The biggest story with this system will likely be rain, it appears that it will move slowly across Florida which should cause high rainfall totals. Even if the disturbance doesn't become a cyclone it would still cause alot of rain in Florida. I will continue to monitor this strange pre-season disturbance.

15 May 2009 0200 UTC Tropical Weather Analysis

The East Pacific hurricane season officially started a couple of hours ago, but surprisingly the area of focus tonight is in the Atlantic, where hurricane season doesn't start until June 1. A weak area of disturbed weather is currently over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. The satellite presentation of the disturbance is horrendous at the moment due to 30-40 knots of shear, but computer models have been consistent for days in developing this feature. They forecast shear to drop dramatically within the next 96 hours as the disturbance propagates towards Florida due to a front approaching from the northwest, giving it a chance to form. This doesn't seem too far fetched considering that it does have some vorticity in the mid and upper levels based on visible satellite imagery, and is also carrying along a plume of tropical moisture. All it needs is wind shear to relax for a few days and it could develop. If this system were to develop it would likely be sub-tropical due to cold upper-levels common of this time of the year. I have outlined the scenario in the forecast graphic below. This disturbance could end up being very beneficial in Florida, where drought conditions are developing.

1630 UTC, November 30th 2008 End of Season Summary and Seasonal Forecast Verification

The 2008 hurricane season officially ends at midnight, and it has been a season to remember. The season started a tad early with the formation of tropical storm Arthur on May 31st, which is an interesting storm since it is one of the only storms on record to move from the East Pacific (where it was called Alma) to the Atlantic. The month of June was relatively quiet after Arthur, but in early July Bertha developed. Bertha was a classic Cape Verde major hurricane, but it formed much earlier than normal and many took it as a strong indication that the rest of the season was going to be active. Bertha eventually moved over Bermuda with nearly hurricane force winds and a large eye, and damage was minimal. Tropical storm Cristobal sideswiped the Carolinas later in July resulting in little more than rain and gusty wind for the region. Dolly formed just after Cristobal, and moved over the Yucatan as a disorganized tropical storm before rapidly intensifying in the Bay of Campeche. The hurricane attained maximum winds of 100 mph before making landfall on South Padre Island, Texas, and it was a fairly damaging event. Additionally, the upgrade of the Brownsville Doppler Radar to super resolution allowed for an in-depth view into the inner core of Dolly as it intensified, and mesovortices as well as other features were observed in the highest detail to date. Dolly will undoubtedly be the focus of research in the future due to this. Edouard formed in early August in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and never quite got its act together making it just a rainmaker for the Gulf coast. Fay developed in mid-August and was the first of many storms to impact Hispaniola. It wasn't able to gain much strength as it moved up the spine of Cuba, sparing Florida from a hurricane threat. However, Fay made a record 4 landfalls in Florida due to erratic steering patterns, and dumped catastrophic amounts of rain. The bright side to the damaging rain was that it ended a drought across the state, and Lake Okeechobee rose 5 feet in only a few days. Also, after struggling to gain organization for days over water, Fay finally formed a well-defined eye when it got over land in Florida. The best explanation for this is that frictional convergence, upper diffluence, and the relatively moist marshlands of Florida provided a favorable environment for overland intensification. Gustav formed later on in August and hit Hispaniola as a minimal hurricane, before moving towards Cuba and rapidly intensifying to a 150 mph category 4 hurricane. The hurricane hit western Cuba at peak intensity, and a record 212 mph gust was recorded. This is the highest wind speed observed in a hurricane. Hurricane Gustav then bee-lined towards Louisiana, creating fears that it would be Katrina II, but thankfully it was weaker than expected and hit well west of New Orleans. A large area of convection in the Atlantic became Hanna days later, and it brought hurricane force winds to the Turks and Caicos islands for an extended period of time. Hanna eventually moved away from the islands and brought rain to the east coast of the U.S. Then Ike developed, the defining storm of the season. Ike reached category 4 intensity in the Atlantic and sparked fears in Florida, before diving south and bringing hurricane conditions to the Turks and Caicos and Cuba, areas still recovering from previous storms. The hurricane didn't gain much intensity in the Gulf of Mexico, only intensifying to a category 2, but its size is the real story. Ike filled the entire Gulf of Mexico which caused it to bring a massive storm surge onshore when it made landfall near Galveston Island, Texas. Damage was widespread, and entire sections of islands are reportedly gone. Josephine, Kyle, and Laura formed in the open Atlantic after Ike and didn't do much, besides Kyle which had a minor impact on the Canadian maritimes. Marco developed in the Bay of Campeche in early October, and was one of the smallest storms on record, so small that if it would have hit Miami, Ft. Lauderdale wouldn't experience much. Nana was another Atlantic storm like the J, K, and L storms, and had a very short life. Omar formed in the southeastern Caribbean in mid-October and intensified into a major hurricane as it raced northeast, and brought hurricane conditions to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, much like Lenny 9 years ago. Paloma formed in November and ended the season with a bang. It became a category 4 and moved across the Cayman Islands and Cuba, before meeting its demise just north of Cuba. The preliminary seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy is 141, the 15th highest seasonal ACE on record, and puts 2008 firmly in the above normal activity category.

As for my seasonal forecast verification, I called for 16-18 tropical storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 3-4 major hurricanes. In actuality there were 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This is a better forecast than last year, and I will continue to fine tune my forecast method.

May everyone have a nice and relaxing winter, and hopefully we'll have a break from the tropics for a long time!

1900 UTC, November 15th 2008 Tropical Analysis

As the amount of sunlight per day continues to decrease across the northern hemisphere, winter is setting in across the north Atlantic basin. Sea surface temperatures have been decreasing steadily since peak temperatures in September, and now the 26 C isotherm, the sea surface temperature generally needed for tropical cyclone development, is almost entirely confined south of 30 N. Large portions of the Gulf of Mexico south of 30 N are already colder than this, with temperatures of just over 23 C on the gulf side of Key West. Sea surface temperatures will decline even further this week across the Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas, and northern Caribbean as a series of strong cold fronts push through. Already, it is 64 F in Pensacola, Florida with winds gusting to near 30 mph, and this front should clear South Florida before midnight. Clearly, summer is over, and I don't expect much more development to occur in the Atlantic basin. There's always the possibility that a cutoff low could acquire tropical characteristics at any time during the winter, but I doubt we see a hurricane threatening land from here on out. Hurricane season officially ends November 30th, and I will release the verification of my 2008 hurricane season forecast then. A link to the forecast, which was made in March, can be found near the bottom of this page.

2130 UTC, November 9th 2008 Tropical Analysis

The intensification of Paloma into a category 4 hurricane was just as impressive as the storm's collapse today. A combination of land interaction, extreme wind shear, and dry air advecting into the circulation from an approaching front has caused Paloma to weaken 110 mph in one day, from 145 mph to 35 mph. Paloma is now a remnant swirl over Cuba, and it probably won't re-generate in the face of such hostile conditions.

1830 UTC, November 8th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Hurricane Paloma has become the second most powerful November hurricane on record, with maximum winds of 140 mph and a minimum pressure of 950 mb. The satellite presentation of Paloma is spectacular, with a clear eye embedded within a symmetrical central dense overcast, despite increasing shear as the storm moves into the westerlies. Paloma went just to the south of Grand Cayman island yesterday, which spared the island from the brunt of Paloma. However, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac received a direct hit from Paloma early this morning. A preliminary report from those islands indicates that heavy damage has occurred, but there are no fatalities. Let's hope that holds true. The wrath of Paloma will not end at the Cayman Islands, Cuba is next in line. Paloma is nearing landfall in western Cuba as I type this, and it won't weaken much before making landfall. The part of Cuba that is going to be impacted by Paloma is very prone to storm surge, and the National Hurricane Center says surges of up to 20 feet are possible. It appears that Paloma will take about a day to cross Cuba, and due to land interaction and rapidly increasing shear, the storm will weaken at a fast pace during this time. Paloma might make it to the Bahamas with tropical storm force winds early next week, but it will depend on just how fast the storm weakens. By mid-week, Paloma should just be a low-level remnant drifting west through the Bahamas, and it may eventually bring some showers to Florida. I will continue to update on this unusual and powerful November hurricane.

0700 UTC, November 7th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Paloma rapidly intensified today into a hurricane, and currently has winds of 75 mph with a minimum central pressure of 987 mb. The satellite presentation of Paloma continues to be excellent, with a strong convective band wrapping into a central area of deep convection, where an eye has been apparent from time to time. Microwave imagery confirms that an eye is indeed forming, as well as reconnaissance aircraft data. Another notable feature on satellite is Paloma's sprawling outflow, which is allowing the storm to generate and maintain vigorous convection. Considering that Paloma is over warm water, under an anti-cyclone, and already very well organized, Paloma could become a major hurricane within the next 2 days. Unfortunately, the Cayman Islands and Cuba are in the path of Paloma. Interests in the Cayman Islands should prepare for a strong hurricane, and hurricane warnings are in effect there. Paloma is expected to pass over the Cayman Islands late Friday. The hurricane will then impact Cuba late Saturday, and interests in central and western Cuba should keep a very close eye on Paloma as it approaches. It is expected that Paloma will encounter high shear as it crosses and exits Cuba into the Atlantic due to a cold front digging in over Florida, so Paloma should weaken below hurricane force at that point. This creates alot of uncertainty for the Bahamas, which are in the path of Paloma and could be impacted from Sunday to Monday. It is unknown if Paloma will be a bonafide tropical cyclone or sheared remnant when it reaches the islands. Stay tuned as this unusual November hurricane makes its way through the Caribbean.

0500 UTC, November 6th 2008 Tropical Analysis

An interesting late season tropical cyclone has developed in the southwest Caribbean today, and it will soon be known as Paloma. Paloma is developing in one of the most favorable spots for a November storm to develop, since the southwestern Caribbean still manages to have relatively warm waters and low shear even this late into the season. A cold front that swept down to around Jamaica a couple of weeks ago only cooled waters slightly, and all the dry air associated with the front has been mixed out. The cyclone is becoming more impressive on satellite imagery with each passing hour and very cold cloud tops indicating vigorous convection are developing over a tight surface circulation. When reconnaissance reaches Paloma overnight I fully expect it to be upgraded due to this. I noted in an update in late October that things were quieting down and anything from then on is usually weak, but Paloma could easily be the exception. All the right ingredients are coming together for Paloma to become a powerful November hurricane, and interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba need to keep a very close eye on this system. Tropical storm watches are already up for Nicaragua and Honduras. Paloma will make its way northwest over the Caribbean until about Saturday, at which point the westerlies are expected to pick it up and it will head towards Cuba. The forecast for Paloma beyond a couple of days is very uncertain, as it is unknown where Paloma will re-curve and just how strong it's going to get. Further down the road, the Bahamas and even South Florida should keep one eye on Paloma. Stay tuned for updates.

0300 UTC, October 24th 2008 Tropical Analysis

After the burst of activity related to the favorable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) earlier this month, organized convective activity is minimal across the tropical Atlantic. There is one tropical cyclone active in the Eastern Pacific, but it doesn't appear to be a result of any eastward propagating favorable upper-level velocity potential regime like earlier this month, and MJO plots indicate the favorable phase is on the other side of the planet. In addition to the absence of the MJO, there are strong signs that hurricane season is coming to a close. Westerlies are now screaming across most of the basin as winter sets in, resulting in high wind shear and thus little chance for convection to organize. The GFS is indicating that the first strong front of the year will penetrate into the tropics within the week, bringing drier air all the way to Cuba and temperatures in the 40s to inland South Florida. This is the first of many strong fronts which will impact the tropics as autumn progresses. The dry air wind shear, and cooling of the ocean associated with these cold fronts will make the basin inhospitable for activity, until next year. There is still the possibility of a system developing in the basin until December and there will likely be something, but I wouldn't expect anything strong.

0300 UTC, October 9th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Marco made landfall in Mexico yesterday with an official intensity of 65 mph. However, we will never really know just how strong Marco was. Reconnaissance investigated Marco well before landfall and found winds of 65 mph, but there were no observations after that point. Satellite imagery, and especially microwave imagery, indicated that Marco organized further after the reconnaissance mission, and it could have been a hurricane. Soon after Marco made landfall it dissipated over the mountains of Mexico. Now the North Atlantic basin is quiet, but that may not continue. Hurricane Norbert, a category 4 hurricane which may threaten Baja California, and TD-16E, are both active in the East Pacific. Usually when you see high activity in the East Pacific the Atlantic becomes active soon afterwards. This is due to the Madden Julian Oscillation, which propagates eastwards around the globe, bringing periods of favorable and unfavorable conditions for tropical development. Marco may be the first sign that things are about to get more active in the Atlantic due to a favorable phase of the MJO, especially since it formed in the far western part of the basin, closest to the East Pacific. We will just have to wait and see what happens.

0000 UTC, October 7th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Tropical storm Marco developed in the Bay of Campeche today, and it is a very interesting cyclone. Marco has a minimum central pressure of 998 mb and maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, making it a strong tropical storm. However, Marco is a very small tropical storm, with tropical storm force winds extending outwards only 30 miles from the center, and that's probably generous. You could fit the entirety of tropical storm Marco over South Florida, which is incredible. For example, if Marco were to make landfall in Miami, Ft. Lauderdale would just experience some passing rain and maybe a little breeze, while Miami is slammed with 65 mph winds. As for the future of Marco, it may strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall on the western coastline of the Bay of Campeche tomorrow afternoon. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are up for part of Mexico in anticipation of Marco's impact. Interests in the path of Marco should not take this storm lightly just because it is small, it could pack quite a punch upon landfall. It will certainly be interesting to watch this situation evolve.

1600 UTC, September 27th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Alot has happened since I was last able to update on the 22nd. First off, a low pressure system developed off the southeastern U.S. a few days ago due to the interaction between a cool airmass over the U.S. and a warm Atlantic airmass. This system slowly acquired tropical characteristics before making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border with strong tropical storm force winds two days ago. The system wasn't declared anything by the National Hurricane Center, but there is alot of controversy about that decision. It appears that it at least met the requirements to be considered a subtropical storm, if not a tropical storm. It had a well-defined surface circulation, organized convection, a vigorous warm core (as observed by Air Force reconnaissance), and wasn't really connected to any frontal features. There is some uncertainty on how much of an upper-level cold core structure remained with the system though, and that can cause it to be considered subtropical. It will certainly be interesting to see if the National Hurricane Center classifies this system post-season.

Meanwhile, the disturbance near Hispaniola that I discussed in my last update moved north of Hispaniola after meandering for awhile, and has become tropical storm Kyle. Kyle currently has winds of 70 mph and its structure is more impressive than ever at this point. The vigorous circulation of Kyle is embedded under a strong convective band, and it appears that the storm is slowly strengthening. Kyle may become a hurricane over the next day due to strong upper-level divergence, before making landfall somewhere in the western Canadian Maritimes or Maine late Sunday into early Monday. There are tropical storm and hurricane watches up for sections of coastal Maine, and sections of Canada to the east should also go under some form of advisories soon. Far eastern Massachusetts may also be affected by Kyle if it takes a more westerly track, but most of the bad weather associated with Kyle is located on the eastern side of its circulation. Interests in the path of Kyle should heed the advice of the National Hurricane Center and their local government.

2030 UTC, September 22nd 2008 Tropical Analysis

After a welcome quiet period in the North Atlantic basin brought on by the negative phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, large-scale upper-level positive velocity potential anomalies are beginning to move back into the region. An area of disturbed weather has been brewing near Puerto Rico over the past couple of days, perhaps partially due to the return of the positive anomalies, and it bears close watching. Aircraft, radar, and satellite data indicate that this area of disturbed weather is becoming more organized, and it appears it has developed a surface circulation near Hispaniola. There is alot of convective activity associated with the disturbance, although it is being sheared to the SE side of the system. Interaction with Hispaniola is also inhibiting the system. Overall though, it appears that the disturbance may need to be upgraded to a tropical depression soon. Due to the effects of land and shear, I don't expect the system to develop all that fast initially. However, it will have plenty of time to develop and strengthen as it moves away from Hispaniola in about a day, as it is induced northward into a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge. There may be enough of a blocking high pressure to the east of the system to make it a threat to the east coast of the United States, so I suggest interests from the Carolinas to New England keep an eye on this system. Details should become more clear over the next couple of days. I will continue to update.

1800 UTC, September 14th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Ike devastated areas of the gulf coast, and reports from the impacted region have been fairly sparse. Based on initial reports, it appears that significant surges occurred in most of Louisiana and Texas, with the maximum surge occurring from Lake Charles to Galveston. Areas along that swath of coastline are severely damaged, and entire towns have been washed away. The amount of casualties from Ike remains unknown, and hopefully it is low despite the fact many did not heed evacuation orders. Ike also caused significant damage to the Houston metro area, and many skyscrapers had their windows blown out. A cold front has picked up Ike, and it is now racing NE over Indiana as a rain maker. As for the rest of the tropics, things are quiet for the first time in a long time. The Atlantic is currently in the negative phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which is likely at least partially responsible for the lack tropical cyclones, and this phase should continue for another week if not more. We are still in the active part of the season though, and there will be more cyclones. I will update when something develops.

2000 UTC, September 12th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Hurricane Ike is beginning to impact the coastline of Texas with surge and high winds. Already, 7 feet of storm surge is being reported at Galveston with 60 mph gusts, and all low-lying coastal areas not protected by a seawall are sustaining major damage. Ike hasn't strengthened much over the past couple of days, and remains a category 2 hurricane. However, it is an extremely large storm, and due to its size is as powerful as a category 5 hurricane in terms of surge. Hopefully, those that needed to evacuate have evacuated, as the time to do so is essentially over. A surge of over 20 feet can be expected tonight into tomorrow in some areas of Texas as Ike pushes onshore. Interests in the path of Ike need to continue monitoring statements from their local government and the National Hurricane Center.

0345 UTC, September 11th 2008 Tropical Analysis

A very serious situation is developing tonight as Ike churns in the Gulf of Mexico. Ike has deepened an incredible 24 mb since leaving the coast of Cuba, and now has a minimum central pressure of 944 mb, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. The structure of Ike has been very complex throughout the day, with a well-defined and extremely tiny inner core, surrounded by a dominant outer band. These two features began to merge this afternoon, and this was concurrent with a rapid fall in Ike's pressure. It appears that Ike's core is continuing to organize right now, and it may take another 6-12 hours. I expect Ike's winds to increase dramatically when it gets itself together, as a minimum pressure of 944 mb usually supports the winds of a category 3-4 hurricane. Additionally, Ike is sitting over the warm waters of the loop current and its upper-level outflow continues to be excellent. Thus, as Ike pushes WNW under the ridge over the next two days further strengthening, if not explosive strengthening, is likely. There are some inhibiting factors that will at least try to affect Ike though. The first is dry air. Whenever a tropical cyclone approaches the Gulf Coast, it usually entrains alot of dry air off the continent. This has already been seen many times this year. Another inhibiting factor may be an incoming trough in two days. Ike is expected to turn more northerly just before landfall due to the subtropical ridge breaking down from the trough, which will put Ike in a more sheared environment. However, it appears that this may start only hours before landfall, and shear won't be able to work its magic in such a short time. I don't believe these factors will have much of an impact on Ike, and it is more likely than not that Ike will be an extremely powerful hurricane when it makes landfall in Texas. It is important to note that Ike has a very large wind field. Ike's hurricane force winds extend outward over 100 miles, with its tropical storm force winds extending outward over 200 miles. This will not only result in Ike affecting a large area with damaging wind, it will cause Ike's storm surge to be massive and across a large area. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi to just east of the TX/LA border, with hurricane watches from that point to almost the TX/MX border. All interests in the path of Ike need to heed the advice of local government and the National Hurricane Center. I will continue to update.

0200 UTC, September 10th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Ike maintained a remarkably organized structure as it crossed Cuba today, and never lost hurricane intensity. Currently Ike has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with a minimum central pressure of 969 mb, and reconnaissance data indicates that Ike is beginning to restrengthen over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery is also indicating that Ike is restrengthening, with very cold cloud tops becoming apparent around the storm's eye, and the outer bands of the storm becoming more vigorous. Also, Ike's upper-level outflow continues to be excellent. These observations in addition to favorable environmental factors over the next two days suggest that Ike may be on the verge of rapid intensification, and it could easily be a major hurricane by tomorrow. A notable aspect of Ike today has been its large wind field, and tropical storm force gusts have been recorded across a large part of the Florida peninsula, with near hurricane force gusts at some weather observing sites in the Keys. Ike's outer rainbands continue to lash the Florida Keys and parts of South Florida, but this activity will be subsiding over the next day as Ike pushes off to the west. It appears that Ike will take a WNW path across the Gulf of Mexico, putting Texas at the greatest risk of landfall. There is still uncertainty in the forecast, but we should know alot more by tomorrow. Interests from Louisiana to northern Mexico need to monitor Ike closely, and heed the advice of local government officials and the National Hurricane Center. I will continue to update.

0000 UTC, September 9th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Ike took the southerly route over Cuba and crossed into the Caribbean this afternoon. Since then Ike has been showing signs of beginning its long anticipated WNW motion, and is now moving almost directly along the coast of central Cuba. Due to land interaction Ike's maximum sustained winds have weakened to 75 mph based on reconnaissance data, although its central pressure is still a very low 966 mb. Further weakening to a tropical storm is likely as Ike crosses Cuba overnight and into tomorrow. As Ike makes its closest approach to the Florida Keys and South Florida tonight and tomorrow tropical storm conditions will overspread the region in rain bands. Already wind gusts over tropical storm force have been observed in the Keys, with gusts just below tropical storm force being observed across South Florida. Obviously Florida lucked out with this one, and some tropical storm conditions are much better than what was possible. As for Ike's future beyond tomorrow, it is possible that Ike could become a powerful hurricane as it traverses the Gulf of Mexico. All of the ingredients are there, warm water, low shear, an upper level anti-cyclone, and a ridge to the north. However, it is unknown where Ike is going at this time, and the models have been all over the place. Interests along the Gulf Coast should just monitor Ike for now. I will continue to update.

1730 UTC, September 7th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Hurricane Ike ripped through the Turks and Caicos islands overnight, and is moving over Grand Inagua island at the moment as it continues west towards Cuba. Ike's maximum sustained winds are 135 mph, making it a very dangerous category 4 hurricane. It is possible that Ike will strengthen more today as it crosses the warm waters between Grand Inagua and Cuba, as it will be over those waters for at least another 6+ hours. It is probable that Ike will reach the coastline of Cuba late this evening into tonight, and conditions are already going downhill in Cuba. Alot of uncertainty comes into the forecast as Ike reaches Cuba though, as was discussed yesterday. The ridge that has been steering Ike is pushing off to the east and allowing Ike to slowly change course. Yesterday Ike's heading slowly changed from WSW to W, and today it should change from W to WNW. The big question is where does this occur, and there are multiple possibilities. The first possibility, and the one forecasted by the National Hurricane Center, is that Ike will turn over Cuba and travel up the spine of the island, losing alot of strength. The second scenario is that Ike will cross Cuba into the Caribbean as it heads west, only briefly weakening before restrengthening over the warm waters of the Caribbean. The third scenario is that Ike will turn WNW before or as it is reaching the Cuban coastline, allowing it to travel along or north of the coast, and maintain strength or strengthen over the warm waters of the Atlantic and Florida Straits. All three scenarios have an equal possibility of occurring, and we will just have to wait and see what happens. Ike will start to effect the Florida Keys Monday as it heads WNW, making its closest approach sometime Tuesday. The impact of Ike on the Keys is largely dependent on which scenario occurs as Ike turns. Scenarios one and two wouldn't be all that bad for the Keys with tropical storm force winds being the likely impact, while scenario three could end up bringing the full brunt of the storm to the Keys. South Florida will also likely experience some tropical storm conditions as Ike passes by, unless Ike takes the most southerly track possible. After Ike moves past Cuba and Florida, in a weakened state or not, it will traverse the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for Ike to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico, but the track of Ike is very uncertain at that point. Some models indicate that a trough will get a hold of Ike and steer the storm rapidly north, threatening the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Other models suggest that Ike will be more of a central to western Gulf of Mexico threat. Ike is many days from a Gulf of Mexico threat, and interests along the Gulf coast should just monitor the storm for now. Hurricane warnings are up for the southern and central Bahamas and eastern and central Cuba. Hurricane watches are up for the Florida Keys and Abacos island in the Bahamas, as well as a piece of western Cuba. Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Cayman islands, in case of a more southerly track, and tropical storm warnings continue for now in northern Haiti. Interests in all of these regions need to monitor the storm and make the necessary preparations, based on the advice of local government and the National Hurricane Center. I will continue to update.

1330 UTC, September 6th 2008 Tropical Analysis

To briefly mention Hanna, it made landfall early this morning on the South Carolina/North Carolina border as a tropical storm, and will now bring rain up the east coast. I would talk about it more, but the real pressing issue today is Ike. Ike continues to be a major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and a minimum central pressure of 962 mb. The hurricane is under the influence of a strong Atlantic ridge, and is heading generally WSW. This motion should continue for the next two days, causing Ike to move into the Turks and Caicos islands late tonight, and near the Cuban coastline late Sunday night. Ike will be under the influence of shear during this time period, and that will hopefully prevent Ike from strengthening too much. The caveat is that Ike is already a major hurricane, so even if it doesn't strengthen it is still dangerous. Alot of uncertainty starts to come into the forecast as Ike nears the Cuban coastline. It appears that Ike will begin to head W and WNW at this point as it rounds the ridge, but just when and where remain very uncertain. For example, the current GFDL has Ike hitting Cuba, but then turning WNW along the coast and staying relatively close to water. Meanwhile, the HWRF shows Ike traveling the length of Cuba. A more northerly scenario would favor Ike becoming a much more powerful hurricane as it travels over warm waters under light shear, while a southerly scenario would inhibit Ike due to land. The timing and nature of Ike's turn WNW will also have significant implications on the storm's impacts in South Florida and the Keys, with a more northerly track bringing much worse conditions than a more southerly track. As Ike moves over, along, or north of the coast of Cuba early Tuesday morning, major uncertainty comes into the forecast. The models are in agreement that Ike will begin turning even more northerly and emerge over water if it isn't over water already, but where is the question. Some models have Ike turning significantly towards the north way out in the Gulf of Mexico, which would keep the worst conditions of Ike away from the Keys. However, other models strongly suggest that the ridge will break down over Florida as Ike nears, causing Ike to turn northerly much faster. The GFDL depicts Ike turning NW and almost directly moving over the Lower Keys late Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then continuing on to affect Florida's west coast. Thus, the future path and intensity of Ike remains up in the air, and we will just have to wait and see what scenario plays out. Things should become much more clear by Sunday. Interests in the Bahamas, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida need to continue monitoring Ike. I will continue to update.

0030 UTC, September 5th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Tropical storm Hanna and major hurricane Ike are the two systems that bear the closest watching in the Atlantic basin tonight, with Hanna being of more immediate concern and Ike a developing concern for a few days from now. To start, Hanna has been moving NW today just east of the spine of the Bahamas, lashing the Bahamas with tropical storm force winds and heavy rains. The system has been under the influence of strong easterly shear today, resulting in the surface center being displaced from the deepest convection. Hanna has not weakened today though, and still has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, and could become a hurricane at any time. Current infrared imagery indicates that a convective blowup is occurring near Hanna's center, and if it can maintain itself I would not be surprised to see Hanna become a minimal hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning. Fortunately, environmental conditions should prevent Hanna from strengthening beyond category 1 status. Hanna is going to move at a fairly high speed towards the coast of the Carolinas over the next day, and make landfall there late Friday. The system will then continue rapidly up the east coast, possibly bringing tropical storm conditions up the coastline all the way to New England. Hanna should be no worse than the typical nor-easter for mid-Atlantic and northeast interests, with heavy rain and some gusty winds. Hurricane watches are currently in effect for most of the Carolina coastline, with tropical storm advisories extending up to New Jersey. As Hanna moves out of the picture, Ike is becoming a bigger concern. Currently Ike has maximum sustained winds of 135 mph based on satellite estimates, and its structure has been slowly improving over the afternoon and evening indicating strengthening. There will be continued Fluxes in Ike's intensity over the coming days, but all indications are that it will remain a powerful hurricane. The future track of Ike is the tricky part of the forecast tonight, rather than the intensity for once. Ike has ceased its WNW heading over the past few hours as a strong ridge builds in, and is now traveling due west along 23.75 N, at about 59 W. Ike should begin to turn WSW overnight, and this motion will continue for the next few days. This is where the first uncertainty in the forecast comes in, as it is unknown just how far WSW Ike will dive. Most models have Ike turning WNW once it reaches the Turks and Caicos Islands Sunday, but the GFDL model has Ike continuing WSW into the northern coast of Hispaniola, before turning WNW. I believe this stage of Ike's life will be the most crucial event to determine what happens down the road. After Ike begins to head WNW, it may threaten the rest of the Bahamas and then South Florida by Tuesday. At this point more uncertainty comes in. Some models have been recurving Ike before it gets to Florida, but confidence in the possibility of a recurve has been decreasing. Interests in the Turks and Caicos islands, Bahamas, Hispaniola, Cuba, and Florida need to keep a very close eye on Ike. Interests 4-5 days away from Ike don't need to worry yet, and just watch, as the forecast could still change. However, interests in the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands appear to be at great risk, and initial preparations would not be a bad idea. As for Josephine, it continues to be a fairly weak storm, and certainly nothing to worry about at all until the immediate threats come to pass. I will continue to update.

0100 UTC, September 4th 2008 Tropical Analysis

Hanna has finally begun to move today towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge, after nearly dissipating over northwestern Hispaniola earlier today from heavy shear and land interaction. As has been the case repeatedly with Hanna though, it is fighting back against the odds and has organized fairly rapidly since the afternoon, and its pressure is down 8 mb today to 989 mb, with maximum sustained winds up to 65 mph. The center of Hanna has been exposed most of the day and multiple vortices were evident, but the latest satellite images indicate that cold cloud tops are beginning to expand across Hanna's circulation. Considering that Hanna already has winds of 65 mph and that it is showing signs of continued organization, despite SE shear, it could become a minimal hurricane at any time. The large cutoff low near Maine which has been keeping the weakness in the subtropical ridge open is finally ejecting to the NE, which will allow the subropical ridge to build in south of it rapidly. This will push Hanna more westerly soon, causing it to travel up the Bahamas and threaten the U.S. anywhere from Florida to North Carolina, depending on the strength of the ridge and the strength of the storm. This is not a clear cut situation, and there is more uncertainty than usual for a storm within 2 days of landfall. Thus, interests in the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. need to continue to keep a close eye on Hanna. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas, with tropical storm warnings in the Southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and northwestern Hispaniola. Meanwhile, Ike has become a much more powerful storm system within the past day. Currently, Ike is a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph based on satellite estimates, and continues to strengthen. It is going to cross 55 W overnight at about 23 N on a WNW heading. Its WNW heading should continue until sometime overnight tomorrow, when the ridge building into the Atlantic will force Ike WSW for a long period of time. Ike will reach the Bahamas sometime Saturday on this heading, and could no doubt be an extremely dangerous hurricane. It is expected that Ike will start to go more westerly and WNW at that point, but how far south it goes remains to be seen. Interests in the Bahamas, Hispaniola, Cuba, and Florida need to keep an eye on Ike. East of Ike, Josephine slowly strengthened today to a strong tropical storm, but is beginning to encounter harsh environmental conditions and will be weak for a long period of time due to that. I will continue to update.

0300 UTC, September 3rd 2008 Tropical Analysis

The tropics have continued to be hyperactive, and there are four tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic region: Gustav, Hanna, Ike, and Josephine. After devastating parts of Louisiana and Mississippi yesterday, Gustav is making its way inland, and is now near the Texas/Arkansas border and still has a large area of rain associated with it. Gustav will continue to dump torrential rains in the Mississippi valley, and interests in the region should closely monitor flood guidance issued by the National Weather Service. Hanna, which is currently meandering near the southern Bahamas, is the most immediate concern tonight. After unexpectedly becoming a hurricane yesterday due to the extreme convective enhancement of its vortex, Hanna has weakened today under the influence of shear and now has winds of 65 mph. I must stress that even though Hanna weakened today, it has far exceeded my expectations by holding together so well against crushing shear. It seems likely that Hanna will survive its bout with heavy shear, but the forecast after that point becomes very uncertain. Hanna has generally headed southwards over the last day, despite all models which brought it NW, and this erratic motion continues. The center of Hanna is now just off the northern coast of Hispaniola, and it is so close that a landfall isn't out of the question. Regardless, Hanna should start to head NW within the next day due to a strong ridge building in from the Atlantic, and it will move up the Bahamas. The exact path of it at that point isn't even known though, due to the uncertainty of where Hanna will begin its NW movement. Hanna will then threaten Florida, and the entire Florida peninsula needs to monitor Hanna closely due to the uncertainty in the storm's future track. It is expected that Hanna will recuve, but whether it is before Florida remains to be seen. After Hanna recurves, it will threaten the southeastern United States. The intensity forecast of Hanna remains just as uncertain as the track forecast. Although shear is expected to decrease as the ridge builds in, the amount of decrease remains to be seen. Hurricane warnings continue in the southern and central Bahamas for Hanna, with tropical storm warnings in Hispaniola. Interests in Cuba, the rest of the Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern United States need to monitor Hanna closely. Behind Hanna is Ike, which has been organizing today and now has winds of 65 mph. Ike has a classic Cape Verde satellite signature; it is a nearly symmetrical storm with impressive outflow. Environmental conditions are conducive for Ike to become a hurricane tomorrow as it continues west under the sub-tropical ridge, and I expect strengthening to continue after that point. Ike will pass north of the Lesser Antilles Friday, and approach Hispaniola and the Bahamas Saturday as it is forced WSW under the ridge. Interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the Greater Antilles need to keep an eye on Ike. In the far eastern Atlantic, TD 10 has become Josephine. Josephine currently has winds of 50 mph, and should become a hurricane in the next couple of days as it heads WNW under the subtropical ridge. It is nothing to worry about yet, as it is so far out and there are other things to be concerned about. Behind Josephine is yet another tropical wave, about to emerge off the coast of Africa. This wave bears watching for possible development. I will continue to update.

1730 UTC, September 1st 2008 Hanna Update

Air Force reconnaissance has determined that Hanna is stronger than previously thought, with an extrapolated minimum central pressure around 984 mb and flight level winds that support minimal hurricane force winds at the surface. It is surprising that Hanna has become a hurricane so rapidly, and it continues to be something for the Bahamas and Florida to watch closely. I will continue to update.

1345 UTC, September 1st 2008 Tropical Analysis

It has been very hard to keep up with everything that is going on in the Atlantic basin, with the worst hurricane to affect the United States in 3 years making landfall in Louisiana, a tropical storm rapidly organizing in the Bahamas, and a newly christened tropical depression pushing west across the Atlantic. To start, Gustav is making landfall in the southeastern marshes of Louisiana with maximum winds of 110 mph and a minimum central pressure of 955 mb. Very high winds have been observed across Louisiana from Gustav, with the highest on land winds observed at the mouth of the Mississippi, where gusts as high as 115 mph were recorded with sustained winds of 90 mph. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force have been observed as far north as the Gulf coastline of Mississippi, and also in New Orleans. With these high winds comes a dangerous surge situation, and the worst surge thus far is being reported in eastern Louisiana, where water has been piling up for hours. Water at the Shell Beach reporting station is now over 9 feet above normal and rapidly rising, and considering that most of the area is at sea level, this means tremendous amounts of land in Louisiana are underwater at this time. This surge has been pushing into Lake Ponchartrain, and although the actual lake hasn't risen too much, the canals which drain the lake into the Mississippi are getting dangerously high. Water levels are reported to be 11 feet above normal in the industrial canal of New Orleans, and water is spilling over into the city. There have been no reports of levee breaches yet, and hopefully it stays that way, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a breach. Water is also beginning to pile up against the West Bank of New Orleans as the wind shifts, and many levees not tested in Katrina are starting to be tested now. Gustav will continue to push NW through Louisiana and slowdown over the day, before stalling in a couple of days and then drifting around in Western Louisiana and Eastern Texas. The slow movement of the storm could result in catastrophic flooding for these areas. All interests being affected by Gustav should continue to monitor statements from their local government and the National Hurricane center, and not go outside until the all clear is given. As if Gustav wasn't enough, Hanna is starting to look like a more serious threat. Hanna developed a large convective burst overnight, which has persisted, helping Hanna to gain in organization and increase its maximum winds to 60 mph, and lower its pressure to 994 mb. Based on Hanna's satellite presentation, and the National Hurricane Center has stressed this, it may be even stronger. Reconnaissance will investigate Hanna later today to ascertain its true intensity. Environmental conditions across Hanna are still fairly hostile, with the main inhibiting factor being Gustav's outflow. However, as Gustav moves further away from Hanna and weakens, its outflow over Hanna should diminish allowing convection to truly consolidate. Hanna is currently located in the southern to central Bahamas and lashing the region with gusty winds and heavy rain, and this will continue as Hanna slowly moves west over the next day. After a couple of days there is alot of uncertainty in Hanna's future. The ridge which has been steering Hanna is expected to weaken, causing Hanna to stall, until a ridge builds in from the Atlantic in 3-4 days. Hanna will then begin to head NW, possibly impacting Florida and points northward on the east coast of the United States. How close Hanna gets to Florida will depend on how much it can crawl west before being pushed towards the NW, and it will be a wait and see game. Unfortunately, it appears that environmental conditions will be favorable for Hanna as it slowly moves through the Bahamas, and it may become a hurricane. Tropical storm warnings are up in the southern and Central Bahamas, with hurricane watches up in the Central Bahamas reflecting the possibility that this may become a hurricane. Interests in the Bahamas, Florida, and up to the Carolinas need to watch Hanna closely. Now, as if Gustav and Hanna weren't enough, tropical depression 9 has formed, which will soon be Ike judging by its impressive satellite presentation. The forecast for TD 9 is simple over the next 5 days, it will head nearly due west under a ridge and possibly strengthen into a hurricane. TD 9 should pass north of the Lesser Antilles sometime on Friday, and may be approaching the Bahamas on Saturday. TD 9's path is very ominous, and it is something to watch for the Bahamas and the southeastern United States over the next week. Finally, as if Gustav, Hanna, and TD 9 weren't enough, a tropical wave emerging off of the coast of Africa has become very impressive, and could attain tropical depression status within the next day or two. To say the least, it's busy out there. I will continue to update, after putting my typing fingers on ice for a few hours!

2030 UTC, August 31st 2008 Gustav Update #2

After weakening dramatically overnight and into the morning, Gustav has begun to get its act back together over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The current maximum sustained winds of Gustav are 110 mph with a minimum pressure of 957 mb, based on reconnaissance data. This is an increase in wind speed of 15 mph since the morning, and a drop in pressure of 3 mb. Satellite imagery is also indicating that Gustav is intensifying, with an eye structure becoming better defined and vigorous convection trying to wrap around the eye. Gustav will likely continue to intensify up to landfall, and it appears to me that it will be a category 3 hurricane at landfall. Category 3 hurricanes are very dangerous, and can push a massive surge of water out ahead of them. Already, water levels are rising across the swamps of Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast, with water 1.75 feet above normal at Shell Beach, LA. This is where the main funneling of water will occur as Gustav approaches from the south due to the orientation of that part of Louisiana, and that water will push its way into Lake Ponchartrain. Water levels in Lake Ponchartrain are up to 0.8 feet above normal at this moment. Radar is indicating that the rainbands of Gustav are nearing Southeast Louisiana, and a station at the mouth of the Mississippi is reporting that tropical storm force gusts are already reaching Louisiana. Weather will go downhill from here on out along the Gulf Coast, and I hope that everyone that needed to prepare is done, or nearly done. Interests should continue to monitor statements from their local government and the National Hurricane Center, and I will continue to update.

1530 UTC, August 31st 2008 Gustav Update

The light of morning has brought some good news about Gustav for a change. Gustav has weakened overnight to 120 mph officially, and may be even weaker than that based on reconnaissance data, perhaps having maximum wind speeds of only 95 mph. The storm went from having a well organized structure last night to a very asymmetric one, possibly due to dry air entrainment and shear. However, it remains a mystery why the storm weakened so fast, but regardless, it is good news. Intensity forecasting is a very tricky problem, and I'll gladly admit I was wrong. Gustav will continue to head NW, and is expected to make landfall Monday morning in Louisiana, much earlier than previously thought. I must stress that Gustav is still a dangerous hurricane, even if it isn't of catastrophic intensity, and interests should still heed the warnings of local government and the National Hurricane Center. Gustav still has plenty of time over water, and it could re-intensify somewhat. I will continue to update.

0400 UTC, August 31st 2008 Gustav and Hanna Analysis

Hurricane Gustav made landfall in western Cuba as an extremely powerful 150 mph category 4 hurricane this evening, and has now re-emerged from western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico with 140 mph winds. Intense convection is already re-firing across the inner core of Gustav, almost immediately after re-encountering water. Gustav will likely strengthen overnight and into tomorrow as it traverses the warm waters of the loop current, the infamous current responsible for the rapid intensification of many hurricanes in the past. There is a little shear affecting Gustav, but it probably won't inhibit intensification much. Thus, I fully expect Gustav to reach the pinnacle of the Saffir-Simpson scale over the next 24 hours, category 5. Gustav is currently heading NW, and this motion will continue until Gustav makes landfall along the upper Gulf coast late Monday and into Tuesday. It appears that Louisiana will be the landfall spot of Gustav, although there is still some uncertainty. Gustav is and will be a large storm upon landfall, with very inclement conditions extending hundreds of miles from the center. Due to this, anyone under the hurricane watch along the upper Gulf coast needs to prepare now, and possibly evacuate when mandatory orders start to come out tomorrow. Gustav will be pushing a large amount of water ahead of it, and this will likely result in catastrophic storm surge along a large part of the coastline. All interests along the upper Gulf coast need to monitor information and bulletins from their local government and the National Hurricane Center closely. One final note on Gustav, it's making its closest approach to the Florida Keys and South Florida tonight. Spiral bands with wind gusts up to tropical storm force have been affecting the region, especially the lower Keys and the Dry Tortugas, and this activity should start to diminish as Gustav moves away tomorrow. The highest gust reported in the region thus far is 65 mph on the Dry Tortugas. With all of the attention focused on Gustav, it is easy to forget the next storm down the line, Hanna. Currently, Hanna has winds of 50 mph, and has taken on subtropical characteristics after merging with an upper level low. The center of Hanna is still very evident, but the strongest conditions associated with Hanna are in a band west of the center. I expect Hanna to consolidate into a more tropical like system over the next couple of days as it moves slowly over the warm waters around the Bahamas, and it may approach hurricane strength within the next 4 days. Tropical storm watches are up in the southeast Bahamas since the storm will move very close to those islands. Unfortunately, the future of Hanna after a couple of days is very uncertain. What happens with Gustav, the ridge north of Hanna, and Hanna's intensity will all be coming into play when it comes to the future track of the system, which is just too many variables to deal with at this range. So for now, interests in the Bahamas and Florida should keep an eye on Hanna. I will continue to update.

***1330 UTC, August 30th 2008 Gustav Update***

Gustav has intensified rapidly overnight and into the morning, and now has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a minimum central pressure of 954 mb and falling. This makes Gustav an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and all indications are that Gustav will continue to intensify today. Gustav appears to be on a course that will take it very close to the Isle of Youth and then into Western Cuba, and I can't stress enough how powerful Gustav will be when it hits Cuba. After hitting Cuba, Gustav will make its closest approach to South Florida and the Florida Keys. Gusty rain squalls are already affecting the region, and based on current trends it looks like the actual outer bands of Gustav may affect the Florida Keys and parts of South Florida, since Gustav is a very large system. Interests along the upper Gulf Coast need to continue to watch Gustav closely, as Gustav will likely continue to intensify in the Gulf of Mexico, and it is only 3 days from landfall now. I will continue to update.

2030 UTC, August 29th 2008 Gustav and Hanna Update

The long expected intensification of Gustav has begun as the storm traverses the extremely warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean, and Gustav's pressure has dropped 11 mb in the past 12 hours to 980 mb, with its winds increasing to 75 mph. The current satellite presentation of Gustav is very impressive, with an eye becoming apparent that is surrounded by a thick central dense overcast, and outflow fanning outwards in nearly all quadrants. Based on current trends, I would not be surprised if Gustav intensifies into a major hurricane tonight. Gustav left Jamaica earlier today, and its center is now nearing the Cayman Islands. The most intense conditions associated with Gustav have already begun impacting the Cayman islands, and the Islands will continue to experience very high winds and heavy rain overnight. Gustav should pass the Cayman islands by tomorrow morning, and will make landfall in western Cuba sometime late Saturday. Clearly, Gustav may be a powerful hurricane when it crosses Cuba. Gustav will then enter the Gulf of Mexico early Sunday, on a NW course towards the upper Gulf Coast. As Gustav makes its closest approach to the Florida Keys and South Florida Saturday and Sunday, outer spiral bands may move through the area, causing tropical storm conditions. Already, winds have increased across the region and radar out of Miami and Key West indicates that vigorous squalls are approaching. Due to this, it is possible that tropical storm advisories may be issued for parts of the Keys and even southwest Florida. Gustav will make landfall on the upper Gulf coast early next week, after crossing the infamous loop current. It appears that Gustav may be a dangerous hurricane when it impacts the upper Gulf coast, since there is little to inhibit it. Thus, interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Southern Florida and the Keys, and along the upper Gulf coast need to monitor Gustav. Unfortunately, Gustav isn't the only big problem out in the tropics at this time. Hanna has been slowly organizing over the past day, and now has winds of 50 mph with a minimum pressure of 1000 mb. The system has been going further west than expected over the past day, and is continuing WNW at a good clip. Hanna still has a sheared appearance, and strengthening should be slow over the next couple of days. However, on Sunday a powerful ridge will begin to build in north of Hanna, providing a more favorable environment for the storm to intensify, and it could become a hurricane sometime after that point. The ridge will also halt Hanna's northerly movement, sending it SW towards the Bahamas. Models then indicate the ridge will let up a bit, and allow Hanna to start moving NW again. However, Hanna may threaten Florida as it moves NW, and it will be moving over the warm waters of the Florida Straits and Gulf Stream. Interests in the Bahamas and Florida should monitor Hanna very closely, and remember that its future is very uncertain. I will continue to update.

0300 UTC, August 29th 2008 Gustav and Hanna Update

The tropics have become very active over the past couple of days, with about 5 systems across the Atlantic basin. This discussion will just focus on Gustav and Hanna, but I am keeping a close eye on the other disturbances for potential development later this week. Tropical storm Gustav is currently traversing Jamaica with official winds of 70 mph, but it may be a minimal hurricane based on reconnaissance data from earlier today. Gustav will continue westwards at a slow pace overnight, and should be clear of Jamaica sometime tomorrow morning. Considering that Gustav is over extremely warm waters and under the influence of minimal shear, it is likely that Gustav will continue to intensify over the next few days as it crosses the northwest Caribbean and enters the Gulf of Mexico. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are under hurricane warnings due to Gustav, with hurricane watches in Western Cuba. Interests in these areas need to treat the situation very seriously, as Gustav could become an intense hurricane over the next day. Gustav should be in the Gulf of Mexico by sometime on Saturday, and will approach the northern Gulf coast sometime on Monday. Unfortunately, it still appears that Gustav will be an intense hurricane when it threatens the Gulf coast, and interests from the Panhandle of Florida to northern Texas need to watch Gustav closely. Meanwhile, TD 8 was upgraded to tropical storm Hanna earlier today, and it has been trying to organize since then. Earlier in the day, the convection of Hanna was stripped away by strong wind shear, but over the past couple of hours Hanna has regenerated vigorous convection over its center, and is likely strengthening. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable over the next few days for Hanna, and it may become a hurricane at some point. As discussed yesterday, the future of Hanna is murky. Hanna is expected to move NW over the next 3-4 days, but then models build in a powerful ridge north of Hanna, causing the storm to move erratically and then to the west. After this point, there is ample model spread. Interests along the east coast of the United States and in Bermuda need to monitor Hanna due to the massive uncertainty in its future path. I will continue to update.

1100 UTC, August 28th 2008 Tropical Weather Update

Tropical depression 8 has developed from an area of disturbed weather which has been persisting NW of the Lesser Antilles for the last few days. TD 8 is already very far north and is expected to continue NW over the next several days while becoming a hurricane, but the track may become interesting after that point. Alot of model trap TD 8 under a ridge then and shoot it SW in the general direction of Florida after 4-5 days. This is very far out though, and nothing to worry about yet, just something to keep an eye on. There is too much uncertainty in TD 8's future to make any real forecast. Meanwhile, Gustav is continuing to strengthen and its pressure is dropping rapidly, down 10 mb overnight. It appears that Gustav is on its way to becoming a hurricane again sometime today. I will have a full update tonight.

0400 UTC, August 28th 2008 Gustav Update

Tropical storm Gustav currently has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 999 mb, and just a couple of hours ago was barely coherent. However, Gustav has cleared the mountains of Hispaniola after another day of meandering near the island, and almost instantly deep convection developed over the center as the storm's inflow became unblocked. Intensification will continue through the night and into tomorrow as Gustav moves SW under the influence of a deepening ridge, and Gustav may reach hurricane intensity within 24 hours. A tropical cyclone moving W or SW under a ridge is a classic set-up for strengthening, and the water Gustav is traversing is some of the warmest in the basin. Radar out of Gran Piedra, Cuba indicates that Gustav is on a course for Jamaica and picking up speed, and will likely reach the island tomorrow. Jamaica may inhibit Gustav as it traverses the island, but Gustav won't be nearly as hurt by Jamaica as it was by Hispaniola. Gustav will then go on to threaten the Cayman islands and Western Cuba, and possibly the Yucatan, before entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. As stated yesterday, it appears that Gustav may become an intense hurricane before entering the Gulf of Mexico, but even if it doesn't it will have ample time in the Gulf of Mexico to intensify. This makes Gustav a potential threat to the Gulf coast, specifically the upper Gulf coast. Interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the Yucatan need to monitor Gustav closely as it will be affecting these regions first. Hurricane watches are up for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with hurricane warnings in Southern Cuba. Interests along the upper Gulf coast also need to monitor Gustav closely, due to a potential landfall early next week. I will continue to update.

0130 UTC, August 27th 2008 Gustav Update

Gustav became a hurricane early this morning as it approached Hispaniola, and obtained maximum winds of 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 981 mb, before making landfall along the mountainous coastline of Haiti late in the morning. Since then, Gustav has been slowly moving over the mountains of Haiti and is having a hard time crossing into the Windward Passage. Gustav is losing more and more organization with each hour it sits over the high mountains of Haiti, and has probably weakened to a tropical storm as of this writing. Cuban radar based out of Gran Piedra is picking up the eye of Gustav, and when compared with satellite imagery it can be seen that the deepest convection of Gustav is displaced south of the center. This is likely due to the inflow of Gustav ramming up against the mountains of Hispaniola and lifting, which induces convection. This dislocation of the convective maximum from the circulation center will likely cause strain on the circulation as vorticity generated in the convection competes with the circulation. The effects of the mountains will ware off once Gustav gets west of the mountains, but I expect Gustav to weaken to a weak to moderate tropical storm before that point. Gustav will begin to re-intensify once it gets away from Hispaniola and southern Cuba due to extremely favorable environmental conditions, and probably shouldn't take more than a day to become a hurricane again. In 3-4 days Gustav will move through the Yucatan channel and into the Gulf of Mexico, and if it isn't an intense hurricane at that point already, it will have ample opportunity to become one. The bottom line is that Gustav is an imminent threat to Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands, and interests on the Yucatan peninsula and the Gulf coast need to watch Gustav closely. The good news is that interests in the Bahamas and on the Florida peninsula are probably out of the woods with this one. I will continue to update.

2000 UTC, August 25th 2008 Gustav Update

The tropical disturbance that moved into the Caribbean yesterday rapidly developed today, and is now tropical storm Gustav. Gustav currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and a minimum central pressure of 996 mb, as recently observed by a reconnaissance aircraft. The satellite signature of Gustav is very impressive, with well-developed curved banding, a formative eye feature, and outflow streaming outwards in all quadrants. A trough to the north of Gustav is enhancing outflow further, and a large mass of high clouds can be seen emanating from Gustav out into the Atlantic. Based on these observations, it is possible that Gustav will become a hurricane before making landfall in Hispaniola Tuesday morning. The future of Gustav after its interaction with Hispaniola is very uncertain, perhaps just as uncertain as Fay's future was before it interacted with Hispaniola. The first big unknown that will come into play with Gustav is how it will interact with the mountains of Hispaniola and southern Cuba. Tropical cyclones sometimes dissipate or nearly dissipate when they hit the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, and sometimes they don't. The only guarantee is that Gustav will weaken significantly when it interacts with the mountains. Assuming Gustav remains coherent after interacting with the mountains, there are then multiple scenarios possible. Currently Gustav is heading NW, into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. It appears that the subtropical ridge will build back west in a couple of days though, which would force Gustav more westerly after it hits Hispaniola. However, the models indicate that steering currents will be very weak, and there's just too much uncertainty to make a forecast. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida should take a wait and see attitude with this storm due to the uncertainty, and making initial preparations such as buying water would be a good idea. A large portion of the southern coast of Hispaniola is under hurricane warnings, with hurricane watches along the northeastern coasts. Preparations should be completed as soon as possible there, and people should monitor the latest updates from their government. I will continue to update.

2030 UTC, August 23rd 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical storm Fay has been moving west over the past day, and is now near Panama City. Fay continues to be a very large system, and is bringing extreme rains to most of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. Fortunately, Fay has not strengthened over the past day due to most of its circulation being over land, and only has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. A ridge to the north of Fay will continue to push Fay towards the west over the next day, bringing it into the vicinity of Louisiana. After that point though, the ridge will break down, leaving Fay to meander. This will undoubtedly result in even more flooding disasters. In about 4 days, models indicate that Fay will finally get picked up by a trough and head towards the northeastern United States as a large rain storm. Thus, the big story with this storm will continue to be rain. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Panhandle of Florida, coastal Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and southeastern Louisiana, and interests in these areas need to monitor what is going on with the flooding closely. There are many river basins in the region, and some of these rivers are already exceeding their banks. As for the rest of the tropics, the disturbance being monitored in the Atlantic is now approaching the Leeward Islands at 60 W, and still has a chance to develop. It should head west into the central Caribbean over the next couple of days. Its movement after that point is uncertain, with ample model spread present. I will continue to update.

0300 UTC, August 22nd 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

This time yesterday tropical storm Fay had 60 mph winds and was near Cape Canaveral. In 24 hours, Fay has drifted north to just south of St. Augustine, not much of a movement for an entire day, and actually unexpected. The official National Hurricane Center forecast last night had Fay nearing the Gulf coast at this time, but weak steering currents have prevailed. Even though Fay is only a marginal system, there are significant impacts from it in Florida due to its long duration. Extreme flooding was being reported yesterday across a good portion of Central and North Florida, and this has only gotten worse with the added rains today. Also, 50-70 mph gusts have been reported along the coastline, and this is causing especially significant damage in areas around Jacksonville, which rarely get tropical cyclone impacts and thus have fairly poor construction standards and alot of old growth trees. Fay should begin to head west eventually, but considering what has happened in the past day, it is uncertain when this is going to happen. When Fay does head west, it will most likely stay far enough north to prevent a Gulf of Mexico scenario, due to its gains in latitude today. However, I won't rule it out due to the very weak steering currents, which could cause erratic storm motion. Tropical storm warnings continue for parts of east central Florida, northeast Florida, and the Georgian coastline, with tropical storm warnings and watches just issued for Florida's Gulf coastline. Additionally, the feeder bands of Fay continue to effect Central and Southern Florida from time to time, bringing torrential rains and wind gusts up to 50 mph. One more note, the area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic, now at 40 W, is showing signs of development. It is something to watch closely over the next week. We are entering peak season afterall. I will continue to update.

0200 UTC, August 21st 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Before I get to the tropical weather update, I would like to mention that I have put together footage of tropical storm Fay's impact here, showing torrential rains, gusty winds, widespread flooding, and one small unfortunate tree. The download link can be found just under the main page header, with instructions to download. As for the tropics, tropical storm Fay continues to plague Florida. Fay slowly crawled offshore of eastern Florida today near Cape Canaveral with 50 mph winds, and has since slowly strengthened and now has 60 mph winds. The amount of rain accumulating in Central Florida due to Fay is incredible, with well over 20 inches being reported in some spots, and alot more to come. This is causing extreme flooding issues. The large eye of Fay will slowly drift back into land over the next 12-18 hours, with minor strengthening possible before then. Fay will then cross the Florida peninsula, after which point two scenarios are possible. If Fay goes more northerly, it will just slowly dissipate over the northern Gulf Coast states. However, if Fay can take a more southerly route, it could get into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly restrengthen, and be a threat to the Gulf Coast. We will just have to wait and see, like usual. Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave near 35 W is persisting. It will bear some watching for genesis over the next several days. I will continue to update.

1400 UTC, August 19th 2008 Fay Update

Tropical storm Fay made landfall yesterday on Key West at 1720 UTC, and then continued north and east until landfall on the southwest coast of Florida at Cape Romano as a 60 mph tropical storm early this morning. Fay was intensifying as it came onshore, and its pressure had actually dropped to 989 mb by landfall, which is nearly rapid intensification pressure wise. The structure of Fay also drastically improved, with intense spiral bands extending over a hundred miles from the center and a large central dense overcast apparent on infrared imagery. The maximum winds of Fay never picked up past 60 mph though, fortunately. Fay is currently drifting to the NE over the Florida Everglades, and has actually deepened to 988 mb over land, and has formed a well defined eyewall. The swamps of Florida are proving once again to be a fairly hospitable environment for a tropical cyclone. Fay is expected to continue NE, and may re-enter the Atlantic in a day or two, and possibly have a second life. However, due to the slow movement of the storm, tremendous amounts of rain will accumulate in Florida before that point, and intense squalls with tropical storm force winds will lash the region. Tropical storm warnings are still in effect for most of the Florida peninsula, and interests in the region should heed emergency officials and stay safe in the fairly bad conditions currently present. I will continue to update.

1300 UTC, August 18th 2008 Fay Update

Things have changed drastically overnight with Fay, but at the same time the forecast has become more clear. Tropical storm Fay relocated overnight just before making landfall in central Cuba, and emerged over the Florida Straits this morning as a 50 mph tropical storm. Fay has become better organized since then, especially on radar imagery, and now has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and a minimum pressure of 1002 mb. I expect further strengthening as Fay moves slowly over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic hurricane basin. There is a possibility that Fay will become a hurricane before it makes landfall in Florida, but the strength of any future hurricane is unknown. We will just have to wait and see. Some of the biggest changes overnight have occurred with Fay's track. Fay's center relocated to the east last night, and combined with stronger westerly steering currents than expected, it now appears that a landfall on the Florida peninsula is inevitable. Fay will likely first make landfall somewhere in the Florida Keys, and is within 90 miles of Key West at this point. The second landfall is most probable somewhere along the southwest Florida coast, although a landfall east of there cannot be ruled out. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the southeast coast of Florida due to this eastward shift, and I would not be surprised to see hurricane advisories go up soon. Tropical storm warnings also continue in the Keys, and along parts of the west coast of Florida. Also, hurricane watches continue for the Keys and a large part of the west coast of Florida. Already, the outer bands of Fay are moving through the Florida Keys and South Florida. As I write this, there is very heavy rain here and fairly breezy conditions. There will be more bands as the day wears on, and they should be more intense as the center nears. It is probably a good idea to get all preparations done as fast as possible if not done already, since the weather is already going downhill fast. I will continue to update, unless the power goes out.

1730 UTC, August 17th 2008 Fay Update

Fay began its turn more towards the north last night, and is now heading WNW just off the central Cuban coastine. The storm has been organizing over the warm waters of the Caribbean over the past 12-18 hours, and currently has maximum winds of 50 mph with a minimum pressure of 1003 mb. Unfortunately, reconnaissance has not been able to investigate Fay in a long time since the center of Fay is within Cuban airspace. Reconnaissance should be able to reach the center of Fay early Monday as it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba. On satellite and radar, the circulation of Fay is well defined, with convection firing right near the center. Fay has been showing improvements in its structure over the past 6 hours, especially on radar. It remains possible that Fay could become a hurricane before making landfall in Cuba late tonight, and hurricane watches are up in Cuba for this reason. It appears that Fay will make landfall to the west of the big mountains of Central Cuba, so it shouldn't weaken that much as it crosses the island. Fay will then approach the Florida Keys and South Florida on Monday, and its intensity as it approaches Florida will depend largely on how much Fay organizes today. The warm waters of the Florida Straits will provide a favorable environment for Fay to intensify, especially if it has an inner core at that point. This has prompted hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings for the Keys, with hurricane watches extending up the west coast of Florida to just south of Tampa Bay. Also, there are tropical storm watches in southeast Florida, and conditions could be very inclement there as Fay passes by, since the area will be on the 'dirty' side of Fay. That all said, the track of Fay is still very uncertain, and it could track anywhere from west of the Keys to southeast Florida, so interests in Florida need to monitor Fay closely, and begin preparations if in the advisory regions. The outer bands of Fay have already behun impacting the Keys and South Florida, and the bands will increase in number as Fay moves closer. I will continue to update.

0400 UTC, August 17th 2008 Fay Update

Tropical storm Fay is finally beginning to get its act together tonight, with convection firing across the storm, and a coherent circulation persisting on Cuban radar. The National Hurricane Center currently has Fay's intensity at 45 mph with a central pressure of 1005 mb. Guantanamo Bay actually reported sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 50 mph, and they're well away from the center. Due to this, when reconnaissance reaches the storm in a few hours I would not be surprised if it was stronger. Fay is expected to strengthen over the next 18-24 hours as it traverses the extremely warm waters south of Cuba, and the amount of intensification will depend on land interaction. It now appears that Fay will mostly miss southern Cuba, which was one of the uncertainties discussed earlier, and this will give Fay more of an opportunity to strengthen. After Fay makes landfall in Cuba late tomorrow, it will cross Cuba in 6-12 hours and slightly weaken. Fay will then have 12 hours to strengthen over the warm waters of the Florida Straits before reaching the Keys. It is very uncertain where Fay will go after impacting the Keys. Anywhere from southeast Florida to the panhandle of Florida may get a direct hit from Fay, as reflected by the National Hurricane Center's forecast cone. Tropical storm warnings are currently in effect for southern Cuba, Cayman Brac, and little Cayman, with hurricane watches in Central Cuba, and tropical storm watches in the Central Bahamas, Jamaica, and Grand Cayman. It is possible that watches of some form will be issued for parts of the Florida Keys and South Florida tomorrow morning. In fact, the outer rainbands of Fay are showing up on the Miami and Key West radar, and may start to impact parts of Florida tomorrow. I will continue to update.

1930 UTC, August 16th 2008 Fay Update

Tropical storm Fay moved into the Windward Passage this morning, after traversing the high peaks of Hispaniola. Fay's low-level circulation survived Hispaniola, although it became decoupled from its convection, and the mountains of Hispaniola have been continuing to hinder the storm's development throughout the day. However, Fay's center is now getting west of the mountainous peninsula which extends from Hispaniola, which should allow it to organize for a brief period of time before interacting with Cuba. Airforce reconnaissance just flew through Fay, and observed a vigorous circulation with maximum surface winds of 55-65 mph, stronger than previously thought. It looks like Fay will make landfall in southern Cuba tonight, and gusty winds are already being observed in southern Cuba. Fay's interaction with Cuba will be crucial. If it can manage to interact with the mountains of Cuba for only a short time, it will have alot of time to strengthen, and if it interacts with the mountains of Cuba alot, it will probably just remain a weak tropical storm. After impacting southern Cuba, Fay is expected to turn northwards and make landfall in Central Cuba late Sunday into early Monday. After that, Fay will cross the Florida Straits for 18-24 hours, which will give it an opportunity to strengthen, especially if Fay is a well organized storm before moving into the Straits. Fay will then be in the vicinity of South Florida from late Monday into Tuesday, and then continue to move north into Georgia by Thursday. Unfortunately, the intensity forecast of Fay, even in the short term, is very uncertain. It is completely unknown whether Fay will impact Florida as a weak tropical storm or strong hurricane. For this reason, I advise all interests in Florida to watch Fay closely and begin some preparations, but not to panic. As for hurricane shutters, which I'm sure is a question on the minds of many, it's probably a good idea to wait to put them on until tomorrow. At that point, we will probably know alot more about Fay's future track and intensity, and there will still be plenty of time to put the shutters up. Hurricane watches are in effect for central Cuba, with tropical storm warnings in southern Cuba, Haiti, and the southeastern Bahamas. Tropical storm watches are in effect in the central Bahamas, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Interests in the advisory areas, the rest of Cuba, Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas need to monitor Fay closely. I will continue to update.

0000 UTC, August 16th 2008 Fay Update

Tropical storm Fay has developed from the vigorous tropical disturbance which moved through the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the last couple of days, and is now traversing Hispaniola. Fay finally developed a coherent surface circulation this afternoon as it was crossing the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and now has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. Hispaniola is infamous for destroying tropical cyclones, but so far Fay is doing just fine as it crosses the island. The circulation of Fay remains vigorous on radar and satellite imagery, and deep convection is firing over it. It remains to be seen how Fay will interact with the mountains of Hispaniola overnight into tomorrow though. So far Fay has been crossing a fairly narrow and low part of the island, but it will be encountering the extremely mountainous central part of Hispaniola soon. I would be very surprised if Fay can sustain itself over those mountains, since they will essentially shred the circulation of Fay and cause dry air entrainment simultaneously. After interacting with Hispaniola, Fay is expected to move into the Windward Passage between Hispaniola and southern Cuba tomorrow afternoon. Fay will have 12-24 hours as it crosses the passage to re-intensify/re-organize, before interacting with the mountains of southern Cuba. It is very uncertain where the storm will be tomorrow, and the exact position of it will prove to be crucial. If it can get further north, it may have minimal interaction with Cuba and start to strengthen in the Atlantic within a day. The other possibility is that Fay will move up the spine of Cuba, and may never recover from that. It could also end up going into the Caribbean south of Cuba. Fay will begin to turn north on Sunday, and may threaten anywhere from the Bahamas to Florida on Monday/Tuesday. The intensity and location of Fay at this range are essentially impossible to pin down at this point though. Tropical storm warnings are currently up for the northern shoreline of Hispaniola, a part of Southern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas, with tropical storm watches on part of the northern coast of Cuba and in the central Bahamas. Interests in Jamaica, the rest of Cuba, and Florida need to keep a close eye on this system. I will continue to update, and hopefully the forecast will become more clear soon.

***2130 UTC, August 15th 2008 Update***

The disturbance impacting Hispaniola has been declared tropical storm Fay by the National Hurricane Center. Tropical storm advisories are up for parts of Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Bahamas. I will have a full update tonight.

0030 UTC, August 15th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

A potent tropical disturbance is currently crossing the northern Lesser Antilles, making for an interesting day in the tropics. The disturbance has had an extremely impressive satellite appearance for most of the day, with well developed outflow, curved bands, and clear rotation at the center. Also, the disturbance is very impressive on Martinique's radar, with spiral band structure. Reconnaissance investigated the disturbance today and found compelling evidence that the disturbance had a circulation, and thus should be considered a tropical storm, but the National Hurricane Center has decided not to upgrade this disturbance. I am in disagreement with this assessment. Regardless of the disturbance's classification (and it could be upgraded to tropical storm Fay at any time), it will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight into tomorrow. It also looks like Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and western Cuba will be feeling the effects of this disturbance within 24-48 hours. After that, the forecast becomes very uncertain. The future of the disturbance will depend largely on how much the disturbance interacts with Hispaniola. If the disturbance gets entangled in the mountains of Hispaniola and then Cuba, it will probably have a hard time strengthening after that point. However, if it just scrapes by those landmasses it will have alot of time to strengthen over the warm waters of the Bahamas. Additionally, more uncertainty comes into the forecast as the disturbance approaches Florida. It looks like the disturbance will recurve, but a landfall in Florida or the southeast US cannot be ruled out at this point. Thus, this disturbance is something to watch closely over the next week across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and southeast US. Hopefully, there will be more certainty in the forecast tomorrow. I will continue to update. ---Sign up for Hurricane Warning Hurricane E-Mail, which is now free, and updates like this will be sent to your E-Mail whenever they are made.

0600 UTC, August 14th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

I haven't updated on the tropics in awhile because I have been busy and the tropics have been fairly tame, but there is an area of notable disturbed weather tonight east of the Lesser Antilles. This disturbance has been progressing west over the last few days, and is now at about 53 W 17 N, and heading WNW. The disturbance is elongated northeast-southwest, and has no real dominant center. Earlier today it appeared that the disturbance was organizing about a northern center, but since then it has become incoherent. Reconnaissance actually investigated the disturbance earlier today and didn't find much. It appears that fairly strong shear across the northern portion of the disturbance and dry air entrainment from the south are responsible for the disturbance failing to organize today, and it is likely that the disturbance will continue to have problems developing as it nears the northern Lesser Antilles tomorrow. However, in 24-36 hours the disturbance will encounter strong ridging, and begin heading due west somewhere between 20 N and 25 N. Classically, disturbances and TCs moving west under ridges strengthen, and I see no reason why this case will be any different. Thus, if the disturbance can remain coherent, which remains to be seen, I expect it to begin gaining organization in 24-36 hours as it turns west under the ridge, and it may strengthen into a classifiable system at that point. Most intensity models strengthen this system after about a day, with the HWRF being the only outlier. The GFDL is the most ominous model at this point, and shows a major hurricane barreling through the Bahamas in 5 days. Of course, intensity forecasts after a couple of days are useless, so no reason to be alarmed. Finally, interests from the northern Lesser Antilles, into the Greater Antilles, across the Bahamas, and in Florida need to keep an eye on this system since it is most likely to threaten those regions. I will continue to update.

0200 UTC, August 5th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical storm Edouard has been slowly organizing off the coast of Louisiana today, and now has well defined banding and a fair amount of convection over its center. Edouard's pressure has dropped to 999 mb from 1005 mb over the course of the day. Its maximum sustained winds hadn't increased much today, and were generally around 45 mph, but a recent reconnaissance pass detected winds of 70 mph at flight level, which corresponds to winds of about 60 mph at the surface. Edouard's slow strengthening trend should continue, as shear is light and the water is warm. Like Dolly, the only real inhibitor for Edouard at this point is dry air. Edouard is expected to head generally WNW until landfall sometime tomorrow afternoon, and it could become a hurricane before landfall. This has resulted in the National Weather Service issuing hurricane watches from Intracoastal City, LA to Port O'Connor, TX. Tropical storm warnings extend from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Port O'Connor, TX. Inclement conditions are already impacting the coastline of Louisiana due to Edouard's outer rain bands, and tropical storm conditions may occur in regions experiencing these bands. These bands will spread west towards Lake Charles, LA as Edouard heads west. It appears that Edouard will be making landfall somewhere around Galveston Bay, but wobbles could easily lead to large track errors. Interests should continue to monitor statements from the National Hurricane Center and local government agencies, and I will continue to update.

***2200 UTC, August 3rd 2008 Update, #2***

Tropical depression 5 has been upgraded to tropical storm Edouard based on the latest reconnaissance data, with winds of 45 mph and a minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Everything else remains unchanged. I will continue to update.

***2100 UTC, August 3rd 2008 Update***

The disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico has organized into tropical depression 5. The satellite appearance of the system has been improving throughout the day, with the circulation becoming more well-defined on visible satellite imagery and convection persisting. Reconnaissance recently confirmed that the depression has a closed surface circulation, and winds of 30-35 kt. Tropical storm warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service from the mouth of the Mississippi to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, with tropical storm watches in effect from Intracoastal City to Port O'Connor, Texas. This reflects that TD 5 is expected to move generally west, and likely make landfall within two days somewhere along the upper Texas coastline. TD 5 is expected to slowly strengthen into a tropical storm as it moves west, due to improving environmental conditions. Interests in the advisory areas should monitor statements from the National Hurricane Center and local agencies closely. I will continue to update.

1600 UTC, August 3rd 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

After a quiet week, the tropics are getting a little more active again. There are currently three areas of disturbed weather, with one in the Gulf of Mexico and two others in the Atlantic. To start, the area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico will probably be the biggest concern over the next couple of days. It is associated with an old frontal boundary which moved into the Gulf of Mexico yesterday, and due to warm ocean temperatures, an ample supply of potential vorticity, and fairly light shear, has begun to develop. The biggest factor that could impede the development of this disturbance is dry air entraining into the system from the continent, and there is some northerly shear. This combination of dry air and even a little shear has been known to efficiently destroy tropical cyclones in the past. The disturbance has had fairly persistent convection though, and hints of rotation are evident on visible satellite imagery. Models have also been fairly consistent on developing this system. Thus, the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has a shot to develop, and interests from Louisiana to Texas should monitor the system as it is expected to generally head west over the next couple of days. The second area of interest today is the disturbance at about 20 N and 50 W, heading west at a fairly good clip. This disturbance has had high amounts of vorticity over the last couple of days, causing it to appear as a swirl on visible satellite imagery, and is now finally firing persistent convection. Environmental conditions aren't all that favorable though. Shear is impacting the system, and a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreak is catching up with the system from the west. If the disturbance can manage to stay ahead of the SAL, it probably has a reasonable shot at developing due to warming waters as it heads west, but if it gets caught it's probably toast. We'll just have to wait and see. The disturbance is expected to head west over the next week, and models hint that it may get as far west as the Bahamas. It would probably have to be a very weak and shallow system to do that though. The third area of interest today is not all that impressive. It is a tropical wave located at about 10 N and 40 W, with some convection but no rotation. Yesterday this wave was actually impressive, but the SAL caught up to it and caused it to lose organization. This area probably won't be doing anything for at least the next few days. I will continue to update.

0200 UTC, July 25th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Dolly is weakening in the mountains of Mexico, after roaring onshore in deep south Texas yesterday. A path of widespread damage was left in the storm's wake, with tremendous amounts of flooding, thousands of downed trees, broken fences and telephone polls, and even some structural damage on South Padre Island where the strongest winds occurred. It is estimated that winds gusted as high as 100 mph on the island, with sustained category 1 winds across the area. Total damage as of this writing is estimated to be $750,000,000, the worst tropical cyclone impact in the United States since 2005. Dolly proved, once again, that even a minimal hurricane can pack quite a punch. The good news though is that there have been no fatalities from Dolly. In the rest of the tropics, things are basically quiet. There is a tropical wave off of Africa, but that is many days out and will have to battle Saharan dust along the way. It looks like those in the tropics are gonna get a well needed break, after the onslaught of 3 storms in July, well over the average amount. The accumulated cyclone energy index has already reached 37% of the value for a normal season, which is a higher value then 11 seasons in the modern era (since 1950). Hopefully it is not a sign of things to come, although in the past, an active July usually translates to a very active season. I will continue to update.

1600 UTC, July 23rd 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Hurricane Dolly is currently within hours of landfall on the Texas coastline, and has winds of 100 mph with a minimum pressure of 962 mb. Dolly has been heading nearly due north over the past few hours, and this motion is continuing, making it uncertain where exactly Dolly will make landfall. At this point, it looks like landfall will be somewhere along South Padre Island. The structure of Dolly on radar is fairly impressive, with many spiral bands and an eyewall. However, it appears that dry air has been interacting with the core of Dolly, causing the eye to become a bit more ragged. This is fortunate, in that it should prevent Dolly from becoming a major hurricane before landfall. It must be remembered that the effects from Dolly will be felt well outside the eyewall, with flooding rains, gusty winds, and tornadoes possible hundreds of miles away from the center. Interests should continue to monitor statements from the NHC and local agencies, and I will continue to update.

0100 UTC, July 22nd 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tonights discussion will focus entirely on tropical storm Dolly in the Gulf of Mexico, as Cristobal and other areas of disturbed weather are no threat to land at the moment. Currently, Dolly has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb. Dolly underwent a complex center reformation last night, causing it to be more north of earlier projections. The current National Hurricane Center forecast track takes Dolly into Texas just north of Brownsville Wednesday, and I am more or less in agreement with this assessment. The ridge will weaken over the next day, allowing Dolly to slow down and gain a more northerly component. The exact landfall location of Dolly cannot be pinned down at this point due to uncertainties in the storm's future strength and the strength of the ridge, so all areas under hurricane watches and tropical storm watches need to take the advisories seriously, as always. Hurricane watches currently extend from San Fernando, Mexico, to Port O'Connor, Texas, with tropical storm watches extending a bit outwards from that. The NHC has stated that these watches will likely become warnings tonight as Dolly inches closer. Alot of uncertainty surrounds the future intensity of Dolly. Dolly has been slowly organizing today and its pressure has dropped about 5 mb. However, Dolly's winds have not increased today one bit, and its structure remains ragged. Dolly is forming a bit of an inner core in the past few hours as convection flares over the center, but it remains weak. Dry air from the Yucatan is still interacting with Dolly, and the upper-level low in the Bay of Campeche is still disrupting Dolly's outflow, contributing to the slow development. It is likely that Dolly will be able to mix out the dry air, and the upper-low will move away, leaving Dolly in a favorable environment to strengthen. However, by the time that happens and the inner core gets its act together, it may be running out of room. Afterall, Dolly has less than two days of open water left. To sum up what I am saying, I don't think Dolly will do what so many past Gulf of Mexico storms have done and rapidly intensify. Rather, I expect Dolly to slowly organize into a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane. This would still make Dolly a dangerous storm, so interests should not take it lightly. I will continue to update as the situation evolves.

1630 UTC, July 20th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical storms Cristobal and Dolly have formed, with Cristobal being the system near the Carolinas and Dolly being the system in the Caribbean. Cristobal is not as impressive as it was yesterday due to dry air and some shear, but its winds have managed to increase to 50 mph. The center of Cristobal is actually very close to Morehead City, NC right now, but only gusts in the 30s have been observed along the coast. Tropical storm force winds are confined to Cristobal's southern semicircle, which remains offshore. Cristobal may get its act back together over the next day as conditions become more favorable, but there shouldn't be too much strengthening. Tropical storm warnings continue from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Tropical storm Dolly should be a system of much more interest than Cristobal over the next few days. Dolly formed from the disturbance which was threatening to develop for many days now, since it was well east of the Lesser Antilles. The disturbance had a large area of tropical storm force winds over the past day, but no circulation. Today reconnaissance finally located a surface circulation with the disturbance, and it was immediately upgraded to Dolly, with winds of 45 mph. This circulation was actually exposed this morning, but since then an impressive convective plume has developed over the circulation and fanned outwards. This development may help Dolly strengthen quickly today. Environmental conditions are very favorable for strengthening, with very warm waters and fairly light shear. An upper-level low over the Yucatan is still interacting with Dolly somewhat, but it doesn't appear to be inhibiting it much anymore. It might actually be strengthening it at this point through providing another outflow channel. Dolly is expected to make landfall on the Yucatan within the next day, and it will likely be a tropical storm upon landfall. Tropical storm warnings are up for most of the Yucatan due to this. After that, Dolly will move into the Gulf of Mexico. It could strengthen significantly there, but the magnitude of strengthening will depend on how much Dolly weakens from interacting with the Yucatan. Interests in the Gulf of Mexico from Mexico to Texas should monitor Dolly closely. As for Bertha, the last advisory has finally been issued, after 20 days. Bertha has gone extra-tropical, but remains a potent system, and will likely bring tropical storm conditions to Iceland within a couple of days. It's pretty rare for a system to get that far north. I will continue to update.

1600 UTC, July 19th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical depression 3 has formed from the disturbance which was brewing off the coast of South Carolina for the past couple of days. TD 3 currently has winds of 35 mph and an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. The structure of TD 3 is becoming more impressive on satellite, and it currently has a band of convection wrapping into its center from the eastern semicircle. There are weaker bands in all other quadrants as well, including one spiral band which is moving onshore in the Carolinas. The radar signature of the depression has also been gradually improving, and rain is filling in across the circulation. Also, radar is detecting stronger winds associated the depression with each passing hour, and now detects winds of 50 knots near the center at 7,000 feet. Reconnaissance is en route to get more information. Due to warm water temperatures and fairly light shear, I expect TD 3 to become a tropical storm today. The only potential inhibitor of TD 3 at this point is dry air, but as the storm matures it seems to be handling the impacts well. TD 3 is expected to head north and east along the coast of the Carolinas over the next few days, bringing squally weather with it. It is unknown if TD 3 will make landfall in the Carolinas, since it is expected to move nearly parallel to the coast. Interests across the Carolinas should be ready for tropical storm conditions due to this uncertainty, and tropical storm warnings are up from the South Santee River in SC to the NC/VA border. TD 3 is expected to clear the Carolinas by early Monday. New England should keep one eye on TD 3, since it could affect that region as it swiftly moves northeast Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Caribbean disturbance is still just that, a disturbance. Despite looking promising yesterday, it did not have a closed surface circulation and thus could not be classified. However, the disturbance is still producing convection consistently. Reconnaissance is en route to the disturbance once again to try to find a center, but visible imagery seems to indicate there is no center at this point. We'll see. The models have been consistently developing this disturbance and environmental conditions are becoming more favorable, so it is something to watch closely for interests across the northwestern Caribbean. One final note, Bertha became a hurricane again yesterday, and remains one at an impressive latitude of 43 N. It should become extra-tropical over the next day as it heads towards Iceland. I will continue to update.

1300 UTC, July 18th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

The tropics remain anomalously active today, with three areas of interest. There would be four, but the disturbance that was developing near Central America has made landfall. It appears that this disturbance may have been a tropical depression based on satellite observations, but there are not enough surface observations to prove that. The first area of interest is the disturbance which moved through the Leeward Islands two days ago, and is now just west of the Netherlands Antilles. This disturbance has been one of the most indecisive disturbances I have seen, and refuses to dissipate or become classifiable. However, the disturbance has been slowly gaining organization over the past 24 hours, and may get classified today. Reconnaissance will investigate the disturbance this afternoon to determine if it is indeed a depression. They investigated the disturbance yesterday and found that there was a closed circulation, but convection was lacking. Since there is alot of convection today, it seems logical that it will be declared. This disturbance will continue west, and interests in the western Caribbean should keep a close eye on it. In the long term, it looks like the subtropical ridge will erode and allow this system to go more northerly, possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. The second area of interest is a weak low pressure system off of Jacksonville, Florida. This system has a fairly well defined surface center and convective bands to the east. It appears that the surface center is trying to reform under the convection, and if this happens this system will become a tropical depression. It is expected to move towards the north and east, but motion up to this point is erratic. Interests along the east coast from Georgia to the Carolinas should keep an eye on this system. The final system of interests is Bertha, which after well over half a month of existence refuses to dissipate or go extra-tropical. It should become extra-tropical as it heads generally towards Europe over the next few days, and shouldn't be a threat to any landmass. I will continue to update.

0000 UTC, July 17th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

The tropics are anomalously active for July, with multiple areas of interest. The main area of interest tonight is the tropical disturbance which is now passing through the Lesser Antilles. The disturbance's satellite signature improved remarkably last night during the diurnal maximum, and reconnaissance investigated it for many hours today to determine if it had become a tropical cyclone. The flight data revealed that the disturbance is still very disorganized at this point, but they did find a very weak center just south of Barbados. The latest infrared imagery reveals that there is a burst of convection over this small center, indicating that the disturbance might be becoming more organized. It is notable that the disturbance is generating convection during the diurnal minimum, indicating that the storm is reaching the point where it can be considered self-sustaining. With favorable convective instability during the diurnal maximum tonight, this disturbance could really take off. More reconnaissance flights are tasked for this system, and the data from those should be interesting as this evolves. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development, with shear staying north of the system, so interests in the Caribbean should be alert for possible development. Regardless of whether it develops or not, inclement weather will be impacting the Lesser Antilles and northern Venezuela from this disturbance overnight. The second area of interest this evening is tropical storm Bertha, which is hanging on tough despite heavy shear. Bertha will be with us for a few more days, but appears to be no threat to land. The third area of interest is in the southwestern Caribbean. It is a broad area of disturbed weather situated under a well-developed anticyclone, and conditions probably couldn't be more perfect for genesis. This area has a shot at becoming a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days before moving inland over Central America. Interests in Central America should monitor this system closely. I will continue to update.

0200 UTC, July 15th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

After days of anticipation, Bertha finally made her move this morning, resulting in an eventful day on Bermuda. Bertha was initially unimpressive as it approached Bermuda due to days of sitting over self-generated cold water, but as Bertha began to move it started to encounter warmer water. Convection began to increase around the center of Bertha as it encountered this warm water, and a weak eye/eyewall feature developed on radar. Wind gusts over 50 mph were observed on Bermuda within the northern eyewall. The eye of Bertha then moved over Bermuda, albeit just barely, and winds slackened below 20 mph for a time and the pressure dropped to 1001 mb. Bertha was intensifying at this point though, and its maximum winds increased to 70 mph at 3 pm EST, prompting a hurricane watch on Bermuda. This was a very strange occurrence, since Bermuda was in the eye of Bertha and then a hurricane watch was issued! Based on satellite data, it appears that Bertha became a hurricane a couple of hours after that, but the NHC maintained Bertha as a 70 mph tropical storm. Wind gusts up to hurricane force were observed on Bermuda as the backside of Bertha moved over. Now the inclement weather is slowly subsiding on Bermuda as Bertha moves away, but squally conditions should continue through the night. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles, now at 45 W, has increased in organization today. It has well defined rotation, but lacks in thunderstorm activity. I think that during the diurnal maximum tonight convection will flare across the disturbance, possibly bringing it over the tropical depression threshold by tomorrow morning. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor this disturbance, since it is only 15 degrees east of the islands now. I will continue to update.

1730 UTC, July 13th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Bertha is not the only area of interest in the Atlantic anymore, another disturbance has taken shape 20 degrees east of the Lesser Antilles. First the Bertha update though. Bertha has been slowly weakening over the past day, and now has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. This makes Bertha a strong tropical storm, and no longer a hurricane. This weakening is likely due to cold water upwelling. Berth has been sitting in the same spot for a long time now, and the warm waters at the top of the ocean have been thoroughly mixed up, leaving behind colder water that's usually below the surface. Bertha is expected to start picking up some speed towards the northwest soon, and this movement may bring Bertha very close to Bermuda, where a tropical storm warning is still up. Some computer models depict Bertha making a direct hit on Bermuda, which is not out of the question. Currently, Bertha is 180 miles SE of Bermuda, and has tropical storm force winds extending 140 miles outwards from the center. Reconnaissance will check on Bertha today to see if this storm force wind radius is still accurate. It will be interesting to see how Bertha evolves as it starts to move away from its self-generated area of cold water into an area of warmer water. However, shear would start to increase as Bertha begins to move due to an approaching trough, so the future intensity of this system is essentially unknown. As for the new tropical disturbance 20 degrees east of the Lesser Antilles, it has potential. The disturbance covers a large area and appears to have weak rotation, and some curved banding is evident. It still has alot of organizing to do before it can be classified as a tropical depression, but environmental conditions are favorable, with light shear, warm ocean temperatures, and rich tropical moisture encompassing the disturbance. There is some dry Saharan air north of the system, but nothing too potent at this time. Thus, this system appears to have a fair chance at developing as it heads west over the next few days. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Bertha, and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the new disturbance closely. I will continue to update.

0100 UTC, July 12th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

A tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda, and Bertha continues to crawl northwest towards Bermuda at the pace of 5 mph. The center of Bertha is currently 250 miles southeast of Bermuda, but it must be remembered that a hurricane is not a single point. A reconnaissance aircraft mission into Bertha today, the first reconnaissance mission of the year, detected that Bertha's hurricane force winds extend 35 miles outwards from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending 140 miles. This means that tropical storm force winds associated with Bertha are a mere 110 miles from Bermuda at this moment, and those are sustained winds. Tropical storm force gusts would reach the island even before that, probably with the first outer bands which are about 100 miles from the island based on Bermuda's long range radar. As for the intensity and future track of Bertha, not much has changed since yesterday. Bertha continues to have both an outer and inner eyewall, preventing the hurricane from significantly strengthening. However, Bertha has continued its trend of increasing organization, and now has maximum winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Once Bertha can get its outer eyewall to contract and become the only eyewall, significant strengthening will probably occur. However, there is no guarantee this will happen, and the timing cannot be pinned down. Another factor coming into play now for Bertha's intensity is cold water upwelling. As Bertha sits and spins, warm shallow water on top of the ocean will be mixed up, and the colder water below will come to the surface. This could significantly inhibit Bertha's intensity soon. Also, a trough is expected to move in and cause increasing shear across Bertha in a couple of days, probably causing a weakening trend. The track forecast of Bertha is uncertain as well. Bertha is now drifting in light steering currents, and although it will generally head northward, it is unknown how far west it will get, which will be crucial in how much Bermuda is impacted by Bertha. Bertha should eventually start heading northeast after 2-3 days and move away from Bermuda, but things become very uncertain after that point. To wrap up, Bermuda should closely monitor Bertha through the NHC and the Bermuda Weather Service. I will continue to update.

0100 UTC, July 11th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Hurricane Bertha currently has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and a minimum central pressure of 980 mb. After slowly deteriorating in the morning, Bertha has been getting its act together, and now has impressive banding and a fairly distinct eye. Dry air is still plaguing Bertha, and has been keeping Bertha from attaining an even more impressive structure. Also, Bertha currently has concentric eyewalls. This has been preventing Bertha from organizing further today as well. One aspect of Bertha that has improved significantly today is its outflow, which has expanded in all quadrants as an upper-level anticyclone builds in. Overall, Bertha remains a complex system, and its intensity can't really be forecasted. A trough will approach Bertha after two days though, and that should help increase wind shear across the storm, weakening Bertha. The track forecast of Bertha also remains uncertain. Bertha has been propagating northwest at a slow 10 mph today, and as steering currents weaken this motion will slow even more. It looks like Bertha will be influenced by a trough in a bit less than 3 days and turn northeast, resulting in the million dollar question: how close will Bertha get to Bermuda? Bertha is currently 425 miles SE of the island, so its northwest movement over the next few days could bring it close. I think Bertha will end up missing Bermuda to the east, but wouldn't bet on it. Of note, Bertha's outer fringes are already being observed/felt on Bermuda, cirrus clouds from Bertha's outflow are nearing the island, and high seas have been reported to be impacting the shoreline. All interests in Bermuda should monitor this system closely, and I will continue to update.

0200 UTC, July 10th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Up, down, and now up: a short summary of Bertha's intensity history. After a collapse rivaling the fall of Rome yesterday, Bertha has taken advantage of a period of light shear and has neared category 3 strength this evening. The structure of Bertha is a little less impressive than it was during the last rapid intensification a couple of days ago, but it appears Bertha may try to strengthen further overnight after a stall in the strengthening trend over the last few hours. A cold new ring of convection is developing around the eye, and the eye itself is trying to become more well defined. We will just have to wait and see how it all plays out. In the long term, Bertha should encounter higher shear and weaken as a trough approaches. As for Bertha's future track forecast, Bermuda is still not out of the woods. All indications are that Bertha will meander in the vicinity of Bermuda after 3 days, and where it goes during that time is anyone's guess. Interests in Bermuda should closely monitor Bertha. On a side note, Bertha has thus far produced roughly 10% of the average energy produced in a typical Atlantic hurricane season. This large accumulation of energy so early in the season is unusual, and Bertha may be with us for many more days. I will continue to update.

2100 UTC, July 8th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

What goes up, must come down, and this is especially true when it comes to Bertha. After achieving wind speeds of over 120 mph yesterday, Bertha has just absolutely collapsed. Bertha's eye has disappeared and it's center became partially exposed today. It appears that Bertha weakened so drastically today due to a combination of dry air and shear, and I'll be the first to admit I did not expect Bertha to collapse this fast. Bertha is now a weak hurricane, and appears to have steadied out in strength for now. It appears that Bertha will be encountering lower shear soon and may have a chance to get back together a bit, but the overall intensity trend should be slow weakening as shear kicks up again from an approaching trough. Thankfully, the track forecast of Bertha has become more certain today, and it won't affect the US. It's strength yesterday and early today combined with a persistent weakness in the ridge have helped it move more northerly. However, Bertha may trend a bit more west if it stays shallow and weak like it is now, and is actually moving more westerly in the past few hours. The long term forecast for Bertha is still uncertain even though it'll be out at sea, as steering currents will become weak and Bertha could end up drifting somewhere in the vicinity of Bermuda. Interests in Bermuda should continue to keep tabs on this storm due to this. I will continue to update.

0300 UTC, July 8th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Bertha has rapidly intensified today into a major hurricane, with winds of 120 mph and a minimum central pressure of 952 mb. On satellite imagery Bertha has the appearance of a classic hurricane, with a small circular eye in the middle of a strong ring of convection. Conditions still support further strengthening of Bertha or at least a maintenance of strength, with only marginal wind shear and warming waters. The exact strength of Bertha really can't be forecasted for the next day or two, as intensity fluctuations will largely occur to complex and not well understood inner core cycles. The future track of Bertha is also uncertain. Bertha has been moving more northerly today than past days, and is now at about 53 W, 21 N. This more northerly movement has occurred due to Bertha passing south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and Bertha's newfound strength. It appears that Bertha will now being encountering a stronger extent of the subtropical ridge, and I think Bertha will start heading more westerly. We will have to just see how the interaction between Bertha and the ridge plays out over the next day. Although the possibility of a US landfall is low at this point even if Bertha starts moving more westerly again due to the expected weakening of the subtropical ridge, I won't rule it out until the data is more solid. Bermuda definitely has to watch Bertha closely though, and could be threatened depending on where Bertha recurves. I will continue to update.

0400 UTC, July 7th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Bertha has begun to strengthen significantly as it continues west across the Atlantic ocean. An eye feature has become apparent on microwave, infrared, and water vapor imagery at the core of Bertha in the past few hours, and the banding of Bertha has also become much more vigorous. As of 11 pm EST, the National Hurricane Center says Bertha has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum central pressure of 994 mb. I expect Bertha to become a hurricane soon, since environmental conditions are favorable for further strengthening. Bertha is moving back over warmer waters as it crosses 45-50 W, and shear is fairly low. Dry Saharan air is still present around Bertha and is actually intruding into Bertha's core a bit, but it doesn't appear this dry air will prevent strengthening, perhaps only inhibit it. The track of Bertha remains uncertain at this time. The models are in consensus that Bertha will recurve around 60 W, towards Bermuda, but I'm not ready to trust them. The models are still having a hard time grasping just what the sub-tropical ridge will do. We will just have to wait and see what's going to happen. In the meantime, interests in Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the eastern seaboard of the US should keep one eye on this storm. The northern Lesser Antilles appear to be safe from Bertha since it is finally strengthening, which will help it stay north. I will continue to update.

1700 UTC, July 5th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical storm Bertha is continuing to head west this afternoon through the central Atlantic, and is now at about 17 N and 37 W. This is about 1700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Bertha has held form in the face of dry Saharan air, some shear, and cool water temperatures. Bertha will be approaching warmer waters soon, which will help it strengthen, but dry air should ensure that any strengthening is slow. Bertha currently has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb. On satellite imagery, Bertha's circulation encompasses a large area, with convection flaring over its center. Overall, Bertha appears to be a fairly healthy tropical storm. The model guidance for Bertha continues to shift west, probably because Bertha is weaker than original projections. The current NHC forecast brings Bertha north of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. Whether Bertha turns after that point remains to be seen, it will depend on the extent of the ridge and the strength of Bertha. If Bertha continues to be weak, it is more likely to continue west. Thus, Bertha is definitely something for interests in the northern Lesser Antilles, the Bahamas, and the eastern seaboard of the United States to watch. Alot can change from this point, and we'll just have to wait and see. I will continue to update.

1230 UTC, July 4th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical storm Bertha was declared yesterday morning. Bertha has been organizing since then and now has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb. Deep convective bursts have been pulsing over the center of Bertha, and with each burst Bertha gains some strength. As for the environmental conditions effecting Bertha, Bertha continues to move over only marginally warm water and waters are cooling as it heads west. Also, Bertha is moving through a narrow strip of higher wind shear today, but once it goes through that wind shear will be relatively light. However, it appears that the light shear is concurrent with dusty Saharan air. Thus, it appears that Bertha won't strengthen that much over the next few days as it is inhibited by cooler SSTs and dry air. The track forecast of Bertha continues to be the same, with much certainty in the short term and little certainty in the long term. The models are in agreement that Bertha will be able to continue west under the subtropical ridge until 50 W, but then diverge greatly. Whether Bertha recurves or not will depend on the strength of the ridge and the strength of Bertha, a weaker storm would be more likely to continue west. So, we cannot completely write this off as a fish storm since alot can happen from this point. I will continue to update.

1300 UTC, July 3rd 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical depression 2 has been born off of the coast of Africa, an unprecedented development for this time of the year. The only other tropical cyclone on record to form this far east was Bertha of 1996. In an odd coincidence, when TD 2 is named it will be Bertha as well. TD 2 is currently at about 13 N and 23 W, heading WNW at 9 mph. TD 2's estimated maximum winds are 35 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. The satellite signature of TD 2 has improved dramatically this morning, and it currently has well-defined deep convective bands wrapping into its center. Since environmental conditions are favorable for further development in at least the short term, I expect TD 2 to soon become Bertha. However, TD 2 will be moving into a more unfavorable environment in a few days, with cooler water temperatures and higher shear, so that should limit intensification. As for the future track of TD 2, it is expected to head WNW for at least the next 3-4 days. After that, the track is uncertain. Some models want to turn TD 2 out to sea, others want it to continue WNW. Whether TD 2 actually turns will depend on the strength of the sub-tropical ridge and the strength of TD 2 itself. A stronger system is more likely to recurve. We will just have to wait and see. I will continue to update.

0400 UTC, July 2nd 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

The tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa less than 24 hours ago appears to already be developing. Broad rotation is evident on satellite imagery in association with the wave, as well as curved bands of convection, indicating that there is a low pressure area along the wave axis. Also, in the last few hours convection has begun to flare up and consolidate over the apparent low pressure center. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development, with the nearest burst of Saharan dust well north of the system and light shear. Thus, this wave could become a tropical depression within the next day, and will have to be watched closely. Meanwhile in the East Pacific, Boris is slowly winding down as it heads into the unfavorable marine layer. To the east of Boris, newly formed TD 4E is spinning just off of Mexico. TD 4E is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day, and slowly weaken after encountering the marine layer a few days from now. It looks like TD 4E will also head out to sea like its predecessors, but may scrape the Pacific coast of Mexico with some inclement conditions due to its large size, depending on the exact track it takes. Interests along the Pacific coast of Mexico should monitor 4E. I will continue to update.

0300 UTC, July 1st 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Welcome to July. This month should see an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the Atlantic basin if past years are any indication, especially towards the end of the month. For now though, conditions are unfavorable for development across most of the Atlantic, with high wind shear and Saharan dust prevalent. A strong tropical wave is actually crossing the coast of Africa at this time, and models have been hinting that it could possibly develop. Although development in the eastern Atlantic this time of the year is unlikely, it has happened before and the wave bears watching. Meanwhile in the East Pacific, tropical cyclone activity has increased greatly over the past week. Boris is continuing to strengthen as it plods west, and has an official intensity of 70 mph. It may already be a hurricane though, since a large, ragged eye is evident on satellite imagery. Boris should be able to maintain its intensity or strengthen before encountering the hostile Central Pacific marine layer. To the west of Boris is Christina, formerly TD 3E. Christina was briefly a tropical storm yesterday, before moving into the marine layer and quickly losing all convection. Christina will continue west and slowly dissipate as it is smothered by dry, stable air. To the east of Boris and Christina is yet another developing tropical disturbance. It is exhibiting a broad rotation at this time, and could become a classifiable tropical cyclone within the next day. Interests on the Pacific coast of Mexico should keep one eye on this disturbance, as it is not a guarantee it will go out to sea. I will continue to update.

0100 UTC, June 28th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical storm Boris and tropical depression 3E have developed in the East Pacific. Both tropical cyclones appear to be no threat to land, and will continue west until encountering the hostile Central Pacific. However, it appears both will continue strengthening for at least the short term, with 3E likely becoming a tropical storm soon and Boris possibly reaching hurricane strength. Meanwhile, the Atlantic continues to be quiet. An impressive outbreak of Saharan air stretching from Africa into the Caribbean, and up to Florida is taking place at this time, making skies over the sunshine state quite murky. I will continue to update.

0200 UTC, June 25th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

The Atlantic has been quiet for a little over 3 weeks, a tranquil beginning to the hurricane season. Several vigorous waves have crossed the basin during this time, but Saharan dust and high wind shear have given these waves little chance to develop. It appears that this quiet period will continue for at least the short term. This is a good time to mention that activity in June has little bearing on the rest of the hurricane season. We'll start getting a real handle on what type of season this will be in July. As for the East Pacific, it has also been quiet, until now (hence why I am updating). A tropical wave moved west from Central America yesterday, and is currently exhibiting a broad rotation. This disturbance has a shot at organizing into a tropical cyclone over the next few days as it chugs west. Fortunately, it looks to be no threat to land. I will continue to update.

0030 UTC, June 12th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

The tropics have continued to be quiet since the demise of Arthur near the beginning of the month, and it looks like this quiet period (which is typical for June) will persist. Despite the lack of tropical cyclones, the weather across the North Atlantic is definitely evolving towards a summer like pattern. The westerlies appear to have finally halted in the past few weeks across the tropics, and are now confined to the continent. Also, tropical waves across the basin have continued to become more vigorous with each passing week. A low pressure system actually formed along a tropical wave axis today just east of Venezuela and it was designated a disturbance by the NHC but, it simply does not have enough time before landfall to organize into anything classifiable. However, as the tropical wave path continues to shift north we'll have to really start watching them for development. This is especially true this season since vertical wind shear across the basin is much lower than normal. I will continue to update.

2100 UTC, June 4th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

The small but organized area of disturbed weather in the East Pacific moved inland and dissipated yesterday without being classified. This puts an end to the Alma/Arthur system, which has been plaguing Central America for over a week now with extreme amounts of rain and some wind. The tropics are now quiet, although that will surely change as we head deeper and deeper into hurricane season. I will continue to update.

2030 UTC, June 2nd 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

In what can be interpreted as an occurrence of Murphy's Law, a web server data center in Texas exploded, bringing down 9,000 web servers and many times more websites than that. Unfortunately, Hurricane Warning was one of the sites affected by the outage. So, after months of running smoothly in winter, when the first tropical storm of the Atlantic season formed the site went down! The good news is the site is running smoothly once more, and I can get back to business, since the tropics are still active. The NHC officially terminated advisories on Arthur yesterday, as it has lost organization as it slowly trudges across Mexico. Fortunately, Arthur went south of the Bay of Campeche and thus could not redevelop. However, Arthur lives on (and through Arthur Alma lives on as well)! An area of disturbed weather associated with Arthur's southern inflow developed to the south of Mexico in the East Pacific, and is showing signs of organization today. A small and tight circulation has become visible on satellite imagery in association with this disturbance, and it could be classified very soon. This disturbance appears to be propagating north, and since it is just south of Mexico, landfall will probably be within the next day. Also, residual disturbed weather from Arthur is hanging around the Yucatan peninsula, and I will monitor this region for signs of development as well, although any development will be very slow to occur. I will continue to update on this unusual system which refuses to dissipate.

***1730 UTC, May 31st 2008 Update***

The National Hurricane Center has declared the area of low pressure which made landfall in Belize just hours ago tropical storm Arthur. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for the Caribbean side of the Yucatan Peninsula, and interests across the Yucatan can expect heavy rains and gusty winds as Arthur propagates west towards the Bay of Campeche. Arthur may redevelop into a tropical storm after crossing the Bay of Campeche before making landfall in Mexico. All interests in the path of Arthur should closely monitor statements from their local government and the NHC. I will continue to update.

1630 UTC, May 31st 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

The remnants of Alma have become very interesting this morning, after about a day of brewing over the warm waters of the Caribbean. In fact, I believe I believe this is our first tropical storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, based on several key observations. First off, looking at visible satellite imagery, a well defined circulation is apparent with this system. Fast moving showers embedded within the flow of the circulation can be seen as far as the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche. Second, a QUIKSCAT analysis at 1000 UTC indicates a large area of 30-40 kt winds associated with this system, which is tropical storm force. There was also a ship report last night north of the center of 44 kt. However, the argument can be raised that rain contaminated the QUIKSCAT data, and the ship was observing an isolated thunderstorm event. In my opinion, the evidence is more in favor of tropical storm force winds than otherwise though. The NHC has decided not to upgrade this system, and it is now moving inland across the southern Yucatan. Interests across the Yucatan can expect tropical storm like conditions today, with heavy rains and gusty winds, regardless of the classification. We have to continue watching this system for development down the road, since it may move into the Bay of Campeche and can possibly develop there, for the third time! I will continue to update on this system.

1600 UTC, May 30th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Alma rapidly weakened overnight as it crossed mountainous terrain, and can be seen this morning as a remnant low crossing the extreme western edge of the Gulf of Honduras. This makes Alma the first tropical cyclone in the Atlantic this season, an odd feat for an East Pacific cyclone. However, Alma is essentially a broad area of low pressure at this point with no well defined circulation. We still have to watch Alma closely though. The remnants of Alma have spawned a large area of convection in the northwestern Caribbean sea, and this area does have a shot at developing over the next day or two, due to low shear under the anticyclone of Alma, and warm sea surface temperatures. This area is expected to propagate west towards the Yucatan due to the influence of a high pressure system. I will continue to update on the remnants of Alma.

2000 UTC, May 29th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

Tropical depression One-E has underwent unprecedented intensification since last night and is now likely hurricane Alma, although it is still officially a tropical storm with winds sustained at 65 mph and a minimum central pressure of 994 mb. The eye of Alma is currently making landfall just to the west of Nicaragua's capitol, Managua, and Alma will continue north at a slow pace of 5-10 mph after landfall. The slow pace of Alma has resulted in extreme rains over a large section of Central America, and these rains will continue for the near future. Also, hurricane warnings are up for the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, with hurricane watches up for El Salvador. Tropical storm warnings continue in Costa Rica and El Salvador. I urge everyone in the path of this storm to continue monitoring updates from their local government and the NHC. As for the fate of Alma after landfall in Nicaragua, it is uncertain. Models are split between taking Alma north west after landfall, up the spine of Central America, and taking Alma into the Caribbean sea to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. If Alma were to make it into the Caribbean, it would be one of the few times a storm from the East Pacific made it into the Atlantic basin. I do not doubt this possibility though just because it is rare. We will just have to wait and see what happens, since the rate of Alma's weakening once it moves inland will affect its track. In the mean time, interests in the northwestern Caribbean sea should keep tabs on Alma, just in case. I will continue to update on Alma.

0430 UTC, May 29th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

The area of concern in the East Pacific, which has been discussed over the past several days, has been declared tropical depression One-E, kicking off the hurricane season in that basin. One-E currently has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb, and is drifting north at 3 mph just to the west of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. One-E is an impressive tropical depression, with its circulation encompassing a large area from the inter tropical convergence zone in the East Pacific to most of the Western Caribbean sea. It isn't that common to have a cyclone with well established inflows of tropical moisture in both basins like One-E does. Sea surface temperatures are warm, and shear is low over One-E but, One-E is very close to land which will inhibit strengthening in the near future. However, due to One-E's impressive structure and the favorable environmental conditions, I think that One-E will attain tropical storm status before landfall. Also, convection is increasing across the center of One-E currently, and with the diurnal maximum approaching I expect this to continue. One-E is expected to make landfall in about 24 hours, as it propagates generally north towards Nicaragua, Honduras, and El-Salvador. Inclement conditions are already impacting Central America though due to One-E's close proximity to land, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Pacific side of Costa Rica. Tropical storm warnings will likely be raised further up the coast as the night progresses. The biggest threat with One-E is torrential rains, which could result in the destruction of life and property. I urge everyone in the path of One-E's rains to monitor statements from local authorities and the National Hurricane Center. I will continue to update on One-E.

0400 UTC, May 28th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

There is one area of concern tonight in the East Pacific and the Atlantic, a broad monsoon circulation which stretches from the East Pacific, across Panama, and into the southwestern Caribbean. A tropical cyclone could possibly develop within this area of disturbed weather within 48 hours, and even much sooner, since water temperatures are warm and wind shear is low. However, it remains to be seen which basin the cyclone will actually form in, because if one side of the monsoon circulation develops, the outflow from that cyclone will inhibit the other side. Thus, it is unlikely, although not impossible, that cyclones will form in both basins. As I look at infrared satellite loops tonight, it appears to me that the Eastern Pacific side of the monsoon circulation is winning the battle. Rotation is evident about a trough of convection due west of Costa Rica, and it appears that this area is on its way to becoming a tropical cyclone. It has already been designated as invest 90E, the first invest of the season. On the Caribbean side on the other hand, there appears to be no real organization anywhere, just alot of showers embedded in the broad rotation of the monsoon. A tropical wave is expected to interact with the Caribbean side of the monsoon within the next few days which would help genesis but, it might be too late at that point. Thus, at this hour I would guess a tropical cyclone is more likely to form on the Eastern Pacific side than the Caribbean side but, that remains to be seen since alot could happen. Regardless, heavy, damaging rains will continue to impact Central America from Honduras to Panama with this system, in addition to parts of northwestern South America. I will continue to update on this developing situation.

0200 UTC, May 25th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

There are currently no areas of organized disturbed weather in the East Pacific or Atlantic. However, things may soon change. The GFS, a widely used weather forecasting model, is hinting that a broad monsoon circulation will develop across Latin America within the next week. Monsoon circulations centered around Latin America are a common occurrence every year, and often lead to tropical cyclogenesis on both sides of the isthmus as low pressures 'pinch off' from the main monsoon circulation and become their own entities. The GFS is indeed indicating increased chances of tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern East Pacific and southwestern Caribbean after the monsoon develops, and considering that waters are already very warm at those latitudes, and shear is dropping, this isn't out of the question. I will watch this situation closely over the coming week, and update as necessary.

2000 UTC, May 14th 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

The East Pacific hurricane season begins tomorrow May 15th. Conditions appear mildly favorable for development there in coming weeks, with low shear and warm sea surface temperatures already prevalent. Even now there are scattered convective disturbances across the eastern East Pacific, south of Mexico and Central America. Since my focus is on the Atlantic, I won't be updating that much on the East Pacific. However, if something interesting happens there or a tropical cyclone threatens Mexico and Central America, I'll update on it. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is quiet, and we are about a half month away from the start of the Atlantic season on June 1st. However, sea surface temperatures are warming across the basin, and actually quite rapidly since it has been clear across most areas, allowing maximum energy absorption from the sun each day. Once shear begins to drop off in June, as it should climatologically, it appears we'll be busy!

2000 UTC, April 25th Update

The area of disturbed weather that was located off of the southeastern United States has fully dissipated, as expected. The environment proved to harsh for the disturbance to get its act together, so it degenerated into a broad area of vorticity before dissipating completely. The tropics are now fully quiet, as they should be this time of the year.

1200 UTC, April 23rd 2008 Tropical Weather Analysis

There is one area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic Basin today, the first area of disturbed weather of the 2008 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season. An upper level low which cut off from the jet stream a few days ago is currently drifting southwest, and is to the south of the Carolinas. This low is experiencing moderate shear as seen on visible satellite imagery, and sea surface temperatures aren't very warm in the region, which is normal for this time of the year. However, the low has pronounced cloud banding extending from the Bahamas to North Carolina, and has quite alot of spin to it. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has analyzed the low at 1010 mb, and winds sustained up to 20 mph are being observed in the outer banks of North Carolina. The only real convection present with this cyclone is in its northeastern quadrant but, if convection can become more organized this cyclone could obtain subtropical storm status. I must stress though, the chances of it becoming a subtropical storm are low due to the unfavorable environment it is in. I will update as events unfold.

2100 UTC, April 9th 2008

There are currently no tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean sea and Gulf of Mexico. Conditions have continued to be unfavorable for any development in the North Atlantic basin, as is usual. However, conditions are definitely becoming more favorable for development as June 1st approaches, with the westerlies continuing to slacken and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continuing to rise as the sun angle increases. The parade of westerly propagating disturbances has also continued along the equator, on a line from Africa to South America, a precursor to Cape Verde tropical cyclones later in the season. Once again, it'll probably be awhile until anything tropical in nature develops in the tropics, since we are in an extremely unfavorable time of the year for tropical cyclone development. On a side note though, interesting weather has been occurring in the northern tropics and subtropics, around the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Bahamas. A couple of strong squall lines propagated across the area just a few days ago, bringing wind gusts up to 60 mph into metropolitan southeast Florida! The weather has since cleared across the region with dry upper level air building in but, it is undoubtfully still very humid and hot at ground level. That may abruptly change late this weekend into early next week though, with the passage of an unusual late season cold front. Global computer models, such as the GFS, show this front scouring out all of the hot, humid air that has built across the Gulf of Mexico and northern Carribbean, and replacing it with unusually cool and dry air. It may actually feel chilly here in South Florida with lows in the 50s on the coast and 40s possible well inland. What happens remains to be seen but, it would be quite an unusual event. I thought the region had seen its last cold front of the season, as said in earlier discussions. I will update as conditions evolve, and perhaps those that get this cold front should take advantage of it and trim their trees in preparation for hurricane season!

1800 UTC, April 2nd 2008

There are currently no tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean sea and Gulf of Mexico. Winter time westerlies have continued their spring time withdrawal from the tropics, and now are almost completely confined to north of 30 N. There are currently no cold air intrusions imminent in the tropics, and the GFS has none in the forecast for the next week. This makes it likely that there will be no more cold air intrusions into the tropics this winter season. Indeed, Miami has not gone below 70 F in the past few days, and is not forecasted to do so anytime soon. Seabreeze convection has also begun across South Florida, with impressive thunderstorms around Naples yesterday and more thunderstorms in the forecast across the whole southern peninsula today. These occurrences are a strong indication that summer is upon us. Another sign of the onset of summer is that convection has increased over the past week along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), currently located just north of the equator from South America to Africa. This zone will lift northwards in the coming months and eventually be the source of many tropical cyclones but, for now it is located in the no cyclone zone near the equator, where tropical cyclones typically do not form due to lack of the coriolis effect. The rest of the basin outside of the ITCZ is eneveloped with spring time dry air and shear, which looks to inhibit any tropical activity for at least the next week. As we know, sometimes a tropical cyclone does not even form until July, so we shouldn't hold our breath! I will update as conditions evolve across the North Atlantic basin.

0300 UTC, March 27th 2008

There are currently no tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean sea and Gulf of Mexico. Winter time westerlies dominate the basin north of about 30 N, with an intrusion of cool, dry air occurring in the vicinity of Florida and Cuba down to about 20 N. Low temperatures in the 50s have been reported throughout southern Florida and Cuba the past few nights but, the Arctic high pressure system that ushered in this unseasonable air is weakening as it bakes under the tropical sun. A return to normal conditions is already occurring. As for what is expected over the next week, global models such as the GFS and the Euro indicate the possibility of some sort of disturbed weather in the Bahamas in about a week. A closed mid-level low pressure system is expected to develop over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, before propagating east into the Bahamas and stalling. The models then indicate that this low will kick up disturbed weather in the Bahamas, and that may have to be watched. However, it is important to stress that long range scenarios such as this often do not come to fruition. Overall, the tropics are quiet and should be quiet for the next week.