Archived Hurricane Warning Discussions

2100 UTC, April 9th 2008

There are currently no tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean sea and Gulf of Mexico. Conditions have continued to be unfavorable for any development in the North Atlantic basin, as is usual. However, conditions are definitely becoming more favorable for development as June 1st approaches, with the westerlies continuing to slacken and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continuing to rise as the sun angle increases. The parade of westerly propagating disturbances has also continued along the equator, on a line from Africa to South America, a precursor to Cape Verde tropical cyclones later in the season. Once again, it'll probably be awhile until anything tropical in nature develops in the tropics, since we are in an extremely unfavorable time of the year for tropical cyclone development. On a side note though, interesting weather has been occurring in the northern tropics and subtropics, around the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Bahamas. A couple of strong squall lines propagated across the area just a few days ago, bringing wind gusts up to 60 mph into metropolitan southeast Florida! The weather has since cleared across the region with dry upper level air building in but, it is undoubtfully still very humid and hot at ground level. That may abruptly change late this weekend into early next week though, with the passage of an unusual late season cold front. Global computer models, such as the GFS, show this front scouring out all of the hot, humid air that has built across the Gulf of Mexico and northern Carribbean, and replacing it with unusually cool and dry air. It may actually feel chilly here in South Florida with lows in the 50s on the coast and 40s possible well inland. What happens remains to be seen but, it would be quite an unusual event. I thought the region had seen its last cold front of the season, as said in earlier discussions. I will update as conditions evolve, and perhaps those that get this cold front should take advantage of it and trim their trees in preparation for hurricane season!



1800 UTC, April 2nd 2008

There are currently no tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean sea and Gulf of Mexico. Winter time westerlies have continued their spring time withdrawal from the tropics, and now are almost completely confined to north of 30 N. There are currently no cold air intrusions imminent in the tropics, and the GFS has none in the forecast for the next week. This makes it likely that there will be no more cold air intrusions into the tropics this winter season. Indeed, Miami has not gone below 70 F in the past few days, and is not forecasted to do so anytime soon. Seabreeze convection has also begun across South Florida, with impressive thunderstorms around Naples yesterday and more thunderstorms in the forecast across the whole southern peninsula today. These occurrences are a strong indication that summer is upon us. Another sign of the onset of summer is that convection has increased over the past week along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), currently located just north of the equator from South America to Africa. This zone will lift northwards in the coming months and eventually be the source of many tropical cyclones but, for now it is located in the no cyclone zone near the equator, where tropical cyclones typically do not form due to lack of the coriolis effect. The rest of the basin outside of the ITCZ is eneveloped with spring time dry air and shear, which looks to inhibit any tropical activity for at least the next week. As we know, sometimes a tropical cyclone does not even form until July, so we shouldn't hold our breath! I will update as conditions evolve across the North Atlantic basin.






0300 UTC, March 27th 2008

There are currently no tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean sea and Gulf of Mexico. Winter time westerlies dominate the basin north of about 30 N, with an intrusion of cool, dry air occurring in the vicinity of Florida and Cuba down to about 20 N. Low temperatures in the 50s have been reported throughout southern Florida and Cuba the past few nights but, the Arctic high pressure system that ushered in this unseasonable air is weakening as it bakes under the tropical sun. A return to normal conditions is already occurring. As for what is expected over the next week, global models such as the GFS and the Euro indicate the possibility of some sort of disturbed weather in the Bahamas in about a week. A closed mid-level low pressure system is expected to develop over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, before propagating east into the Bahamas and stalling. The models then indicate that this low will kick up disturbed weather in the Bahamas, and that may have to be watched. However, it is important to stress that long range scenarios such as this often do not come to fruition. Overall, the tropics are quiet and should be quiet for the next week.