1630 UTC, November 30th 2008 End of Season Summary and Seasonal Forecast Verification
The 2008 hurricane season officially ends at midnight, and it has been a season to remember. The season started a tad early with the formation of tropical storm Arthur on May 31st, which is an interesting storm since it is one of the only storms on record to move from the East Pacific (where it was called Alma) to the Atlantic. The month of June was relatively quiet after Arthur, but in early July Bertha developed. Bertha was a classic Cape Verde major hurricane, but it formed much earlier than normal and many took it as a strong indication that the rest of the season was going to be active. Bertha eventually moved over Bermuda with nearly hurricane force winds and a large eye, and damage was minimal. Tropical storm Cristobal sideswiped the Carolinas later in July resulting in little more than rain and gusty wind for the region. Dolly formed just after Cristobal, and moved over the Yucatan as a disorganized tropical storm before rapidly intensifying in the Bay of Campeche. The hurricane attained maximum winds of 100 mph before making landfall on South Padre Island, Texas, and it was a fairly damaging event. Additionally, the upgrade of the Brownsville Doppler Radar to super resolution allowed for an in-depth view into the inner core of Dolly as it intensified, and mesovortices as well as other features were observed in the highest detail to date. Dolly will undoubtedly be the focus of research in the future due to this. Edouard formed in early August in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and never quite got its act together making it just a rainmaker for the Gulf coast. Fay developed in mid-August and was the first of many storms to impact Hispaniola. It wasn't able to gain much strength as it moved up the spine of Cuba, sparing Florida from a hurricane threat. However, Fay made a record 4 landfalls in Florida due to erratic steering patterns, and dumped catastrophic amounts of rain. The bright side to the damaging rain was that it ended a drought across the state, and Lake Okeechobee rose 5 feet in only a few days. Also, after struggling to gain organization for days over water, Fay finally formed a well-defined eye when it got over land in Florida. The best explanation for this is that frictional convergence, upper diffluence, and the relatively moist marshlands of Florida provided a favorable environment for overland intensification. Gustav formed later on in August and hit Hispaniola as a minimal hurricane, before moving towards Cuba and rapidly intensifying to a 150 mph category 4 hurricane. The hurricane hit western Cuba at peak intensity, and a record 212 mph gust was recorded. This is the highest wind speed observed in a hurricane. Hurricane Gustav then bee-lined towards Louisiana, creating fears that it would be Katrina II, but thankfully it was weaker than expected and hit well west of New Orleans. A large area of convection in the Atlantic became Hanna days later, and it brought hurricane force winds to the Turks and Caicos islands for an extended period of time. Hanna eventually moved away from the islands and brought rain to the east coast of the U.S. Then Ike developed, the defining storm of the season. Ike reached category 4 intensity in the Atlantic and sparked fears in Florida, before diving south and bringing hurricane conditions to the Turks and Caicos and Cuba, areas still recovering from previous storms. The hurricane didn't gain much intensity in the Gulf of Mexico, only intensifying to a category 2, but its size is the real story. Ike filled the entire Gulf of Mexico which caused it to bring a massive storm surge onshore when it made landfall near Galveston Island, Texas. Damage was widespread, and entire sections of islands are reportedly gone. Josephine, Kyle, and Laura formed in the open Atlantic after Ike and didn't do much, besides Kyle which had a minor impact on the Canadian maritimes. Marco developed in the Bay of Campeche in early October, and was one of the smallest storms on record, so small that if it would have hit Miami, Ft. Lauderdale wouldn't experience much. Nana was another Atlantic storm like the J, K, and L storms, and had a very short life. Omar formed in the southeastern Caribbean in mid-October and intensified into a major hurricane as it raced northeast, and brought hurricane conditions to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, much like Lenny 9 years ago. Paloma formed in November and ended the season with a bang. It became a category 4 and moved across the Cayman Islands and Cuba, before meeting its demise just north of Cuba. The preliminary seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy is 141, the 15th highest seasonal ACE on record, and puts 2008 firmly in the above normal activity category.
As for my seasonal forecast verification, I called for 16-18 tropical storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 3-4 major hurricanes. In actuality there were 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This is a better forecast than last year, and I will continue to fine tune my forecast method.
May everyone have a nice and relaxing winter, and hopefully we'll have a break from the tropics for a long time!
Atlantic Satellite Imagery
2008 Hurricane Season Forecast
